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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bryne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 10 as Sarpsborg 08 FF welcome Bryne to Sarpsborg Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 June 2025 at 16:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Sarpsborg 08 FF's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Sarpsborg Stadion this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.00 xG and Bryne 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.036 / defence 0.924 | Bryne attack 0.866 / defence 1.281. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.472. Bryne bring a strong defensive rating of 1.281 — this is suppressing Sarpsborg 08 FF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 9 Bryne games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 56% | Draw 22% | Bryne 22%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | Bryne 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Sarpsborg 08 FF (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Sarpsborg 08 FF at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.18 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

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