Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-1 Bryne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bryne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 10 as Sarpsborg 08 FF welcome Bryne to Sarpsborg Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 June 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Sarpsborg Stadion this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.00 xG and Bryne 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.036 / defence 0.924 | Bryne attack 0.866 / defence 1.281. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.472. Bryne bring a strong defensive rating of 1.281 — this is suppressing Sarpsborg 08 FF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 9 Bryne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 56% | Draw 22% | Bryne 22%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | Bryne 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Sarpsborg 08 FF (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.00 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sarpsborg 08 FF at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.18 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bryne | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Jun 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 56% | Draw 22% | Bryne 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 60% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.00 / Bryne 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.036 / def 0.924 | Bryne attack 0.866 / def 1.281 | league avg home 1.508 / away 1.472 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Bryne xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bryne kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bryne kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 22 June 2025 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bryne?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 1 - 1 Bryne.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bryne being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bryne part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bryne is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bryne?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 56% chance of winning, Bryne a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bryne?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bryne will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bryne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bryne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bryne in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Sarpsborg 08 FF home split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | CS 0.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack at 1.04x the league average against Bryne's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 2.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bryne's attack versus Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
56%
1.77
22%
4.65
22%
4.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
3.18
1.18
Bryne xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.65
22%
Draw
4.54
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
14%
7.39
Win to Nil
17%
5.76
3%
33.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bryne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bryne expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.18 for Bryne, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bryne?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Pre-Season
Bryne
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bryne runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 23 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1
Draws
0
Bryne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bryne?
From 2 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 1, Bryne have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bryne last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2025, when Bryne 0-3 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bryne?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Bryne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bryne share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 10, as Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bryne drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.00 xG and Bryne 1.18 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.04 / defence 0.92 against Bryne attack 0.87 / defence 1.28, drawn from 39/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 56% | Draw 22% | Bryne 22%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.