Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-5 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sarpsborg 08 FF face Bodo/Glimt.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sarpsborg Stadion plays host to Sarpsborg 08 FF versus Bodo/Glimt in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Saturday 18 October 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.40 conceded. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 3W 3D 4L at Sarpsborg Stadion — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bodo/Glimt have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Bodo/Glimt have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.10 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Bodo/Glimt arrive in superior form — a 1.60 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Sarpsborg 08 FF register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Bodo/Glimt in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Bodo/Glimt, who have claimed 7 wins from 8 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Jun 2025, ended 2–1 with Sarpsborg 08 FF winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bodo/Glimt have won 7 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Sarpsborg 08 FF half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Bodo/Glimt half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sarpsborg 08 FF 72% and Bodo/Glimt 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sarpsborg 08 FF 68% | Bodo/Glimt 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.19 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.966 / defence 1.215 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.413 / defence 0.723. League average goals — home 1.706 / away 1.295. Bodo/Glimt's defence strength of 0.723 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack strength of 1.413 — the away xG of 2.22 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 54 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 53 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 19% | Draw 20% | Bodo/Glimt 60%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 5.26 | Draw 5.00 | Bodo/Glimt 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.19 / 2.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.42 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% | Bodo/Glimt 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Oct 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 19% | Draw 20% | Bodo/Glimt 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 62% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.19 / Bodo/Glimt 2.22 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.966 / def 1.215 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.413 / def 0.723 | league avg home 1.706 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
2.22
Bodo/Glimt xG
62%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 18 October 2025 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 2 - 5 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 19% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 60% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bodo/Glimt?
Record (8 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 1W | Draws 0 | Bodo/Glimt 7W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bodo/Glimt in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 3.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack at 0.97x the league average against Bodo/Glimt's defence at 0.72x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bodo/Glimt's attack (1.41x) against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 2.22.
These ratings are built from 54/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
19%
5.18
20%
4.95
60%
1.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
0 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
3.42
2.22
Bodo/Glimt xG
5.18
19%
Home win
4.95
20%
Draw
1.65
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
11%
9.23
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
2%
47.87
18%
5.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 7.3 | 8.1 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 8.7 | 9.7 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 2.22 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sarpsborg 08 FF come into this having played 53 games, going 18W 15D 20L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-W. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bodo/Glimt sit at 2.15 PPG from 53 outings (34W 12D 7L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.85 PPG clear of Sarpsborg 08 FF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home form reads 7W 7D 12L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.08 PPG return.
Away from home, Bodo/Glimt have taken 2.00 points per game from 26 outings (15W 7D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.49 scored and 0.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 18W 15D 20L in their last 53 games (1.30 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 34W 12D 7L in their last 53 (2.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.08 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Sarpsborg 08 FF or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 15 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 6-0 on 24 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bodo/Glimt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1
Draws
8
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 1, Bodo/Glimt have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2026, when Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-1 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 69%, Bodo/Glimt 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Sarpsborg 08 FF) and 54% (Bodo/Glimt). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's games and 58% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's matches and 54% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bodo/Glimt run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Sarpsborg 08 FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-5 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.19 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.22 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bodo/Glimt outscored their 2.22 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.97 / defence 1.22 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.41 / defence 0.72, drawn from 54/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 19% | Draw 20% | Bodo/Glimt 60%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 68%, Bodo/Glimt 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.30. Form held, and they took the win. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.