Brann 4-1 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Brann (68%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Brann face Haugesund.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Haugesund travel to Brann Stadion to take on Brann. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 October 2025, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Brann — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brann's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Brann Stadion this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Haugesund have recorded 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund away from home this season: 0W 1D 9L from 10 away games — 0.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game.
On current form, Brann have the edge — a 1.60 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 5 wins for Brann, 3 for Haugesund and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2025, ended 2–0 with Brann winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Brann in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Haugesund in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 49% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brann 58% versus Haugesund 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 66% | Haugesund 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 2.14 xG and Haugesund 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 1.037 / defence 0.942 | Haugesund attack 0.639 / defence 1.199. League average goals — home 1.719 / away 1.331. Data: 53 Brann games / 54 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brann 68% | Draw 20% | Haugesund 13%. Fair-value odds: Brann 1.47 | Draw 5.00 | Haugesund 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Brann (68%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Brann as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Brann 60% | Haugesund 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Oct 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 68% | Draw 20% | Haugesund 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 49% | xG Brann 2.14 / Haugesund 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 1.037 / def 0.942 | Haugesund attack 0.639 / def 1.199 | league avg home 1.719 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Brann (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
Brann xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Haugesund xG
49%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Haugesund kick off?
Brann vs Haugesund kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 18 October 2025 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs Haugesund?
Brann 4 - 1 Haugesund.
Where is Brann vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Haugesund part of?
Brann vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 68% chance of winning, Haugesund a 13% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Brann and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Haugesund?
Record (9 meetings): Brann 5W | Draws 1 | Haugesund 3W.
What form are Brann and Haugesund in?
Brann (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Haugesund (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Brann's attack rating (1.04) and Haugesund's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 2.14 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Haugesund's attack versus Brann's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.2%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
68%
1.47
20%
5.13
13%
7.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
Brann xG
Total xG
2.94
0.80
Haugesund xG
1.47
68%
Home win
5.13
20%
Draw
7.96
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
12%
8.48
Win to Nil
30%
3.28
1%
67.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 9.1 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Brann and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Brann and 0.80 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Haugesund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Brann come into this having played 53 games, going 31W 12D 10L for 1.98 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Haugesund sit at 0.70 PPG from 53 outings (9W 10D 34L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brann carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.28 PPG clear of Haugesund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Brann's home form reads 17W 5D 4L across 26 games on their own ground, a 2.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Haugesund have taken 0.38 points per game from 26 outings (1W 7D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brann come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Brann are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 0.79 scored and 1.96 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 31W 12D 10L in their last 53 games (1.98 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 9W 10D 34L in their last 53 (0.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Haugesund away?
Brann's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 2.15 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.38 PPG.
Have Brann or Haugesund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brann have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Haugesund in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Brann and Haugesund runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 18 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Brann have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Apr 2023, when Brann won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Brann's record when hosting Haugesund specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Brann
1
Draws
3
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Brann have won 6, Haugesund have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2025, when Brann 4-1 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Haugesund?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brann 58%, Haugesund 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Brann) and 58% (Haugesund). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Brann keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Haugesund in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play Haugesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Brann's recent matches and 50% of Haugesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Brann vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Brann's matches and 58% of Haugesund's.
Do Brann and Haugesund tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Brann run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Haugesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann beat Haugesund 4-1 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 2.14 xG and Haugesund 0.80 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Brann beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 1.04 / defence 0.94 against Haugesund attack 0.64 / defence 1.20, drawn from 53/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 68% | Draw 20% | Haugesund 13%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 68%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 66%, Haugesund 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Haugesund's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 0.70. That form edge translated into the three points. Brann (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.85 average — above their attacking norm. Haugesund (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.