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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sandefjord cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ham-Kam.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sandefjord beat Ham-Kam 2-0 at Jotun Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 2.03 xG and Ham-Kam 0.97 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Ham-Kam landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 1.14 / defence 0.86 against Ham-Kam attack 0.85 / defence 1.09, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 62% | Draw 21% | Ham-Kam 17%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 62%, Ham-Kam 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sandefjord's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Ham-Kam's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sandefjord 1.08 PPG, Ham-Kam 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sandefjord win broke the near-deadlock. Sandefjord (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights