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Stalemate at Sandefjord's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sandefjord and Fredrikstad finished level at 0-0 at Jotun Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.35 xG and Fredrikstad 1.15 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sandefjord fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Fredrikstad landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 1.02 / defence 0.90 against Fredrikstad attack 0.91 / defence 0.76, drawn from 54/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 41% | Draw 28% | Fredrikstad 31%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 68%, Fredrikstad 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sandefjord's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Fredrikstad's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sandefjord 1.31 PPG, Fredrikstad 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sandefjord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights