🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandefjord vs Fredrikstad fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Fredrikstad travel to Jotun Arena to take on Sandefjord. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 October 2025, 16:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Sandefjord stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Sandefjord have posted 7W 0D 3L at Jotun Arena — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Sandefjord are significantly better at Jotun Arena than their overall form suggests.

Fredrikstad — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fredrikstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Fredrikstad away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Sandefjord) versus 1.40 (Fredrikstad). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Fredrikstad have the better historical record — 3 wins from 3 previous contests against 0 for Sandefjord.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2025, ended 1–3 with Fredrikstad winning.

It is worth noting that Fredrikstad have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

In-Play Data

Sandefjord trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

Fredrikstad trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 61% versus Fredrikstad 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandefjord 68% | Fredrikstad 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.35 xG and Fredrikstad 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 1.023 / defence 0.900 | Fredrikstad attack 0.911 / defence 0.760. League average goals — home 1.730 / away 1.400. Fredrikstad's defence strength of 0.760 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 54 Sandefjord games / 55 Fredrikstad games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sandefjord 41% | Draw 28% | Fredrikstad 31%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Fredrikstad 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Sandefjord as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sandefjord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sandefjord 50% | Fredrikstad 50%.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights