Sandefjord 1-0 Aalesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sandefjord (47%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Sandefjord face Aalesund.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sandefjord host Aalesund at Jotun Arena in Eliteserien (matchday 7). Kick-off is Sunday 3 May 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Sandefjord have gone 6W 2D 2L — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Sandefjord's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 2 matches, Aalesund stand at 1W 0D 1L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On current form, Sandefjord have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Sandefjord's 30% BTTS rate and Aalesund's 0% (from Sandefjord's last 10 home games and Aalesund's last 2 games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Sandefjord: 4 wins from 6 H2H matches against 1 for Aalesund, with 1 draw.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Nov 2023, ended Sandefjord 3–0 Aalesund — a Sandefjord win.
The head-to-head data gives Sandefjord an edge — 4 wins from 6 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.31 xG and Aalesund 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.688 / defence 0.949 | Aalesund attack 0.742 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.708 / away 1.191. Sandefjord's attack rating of 0.688 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.31. Aalesund's attack rating of 0.742 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.84. Data: built from Sandefjord's last 36 games and Aalesund's last 6.
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 47% | Draw 31% | Aalesund 23%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 2.15 | Draw 3.26 | Aalesund 4.41. Sandefjord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sandefjord are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sandefjord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Aalesund | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 7 | Venue: Jotun Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 May 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 47% | Draw 31% | Aalesund 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Sandefjord 1.31 / Aalesund 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.688 / def 0.949 | Aalesund attack 0.742 / def 1.119 | league avg home 1.708 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Aalesund xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sandefjord vs Aalesund FAQs
What time does Sandefjord vs Aalesund kick off?
Sandefjord vs Aalesund kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 3 May 2026 at Jotun Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Aalesund?
Sandefjord 1 - 0 Aalesund.
Where is Sandefjord vs Aalesund being played?
The match is being played at Jotun Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Aalesund part of?
Sandefjord vs Aalesund is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 7) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Aalesund?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 47% chance of winning, Aalesund a 23% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Aalesund?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sandefjord and Aalesund will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Sandefjord vs Aalesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sandefjord's attack rating (0.69) and Aalesund's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Aalesund's attack versus Sandefjord's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sandefjord's last 36 games and Aalesund's last 6 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.6%), 0-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
47%
2.15
31%
3.26
23%
4.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
2.15
0.84
Aalesund xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
4.41
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
20%
4.96
6%
16.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 12.8 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.4 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sandefjord vs Aalesund Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Aalesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Aalesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Sandefjord and 0.84 for Aalesund, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Aalesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sandefjord's recent record stands at 2W 0D 0L from 2 games, a 3.00 PPG return, with W-W in the last five.
Aalesund, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 1L across 2 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sandefjord by 1.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Aalesund heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Sandefjord are averaging 4.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Aalesund are on 2.00 scored and 0.50 conceded. Sandefjord's scoring rate against Aalesund's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Aalesund in 0%.
Defensively: Sandefjord have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Aalesund in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Early Season
Aalesund
Early Season
Sandefjord (Home) vs Aalesund (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sandefjord
Early Season
Aalesund
Early Season
❓ Sandefjord vs Aalesund Form FAQs
What form are Sandefjord and Aalesund in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 games (3.00 PPG), while Aalesund have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Sandefjord or Aalesund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sandefjord have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Aalesund in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2020. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sandefjord have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 30 Apr 2023, when Sandefjord won Sandefjord 4-0 Aalesund.
Sandefjord's record when hosting Aalesund specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Sandefjord
1
Draws
1
Aalesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Sandefjord vs Aalesund H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Aalesund?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Sandefjord have won 6, Aalesund have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Aalesund last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: Aalesund 3-4 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Aalesund?
Sandefjord have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Aalesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sandefjord vs Aalesund Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sandefjord and Aalesund matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sandefjord's recent matches and 0% of Aalesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sandefjord and Aalesund matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sandefjord's recent games and 50% of Aalesund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sandefjord and Aalesund matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Sandefjord's recent matches and 50% of Aalesund's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sandefjord edge out Aalesund 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandefjord beat Aalesund 1-0 at Jotun Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.31 xG and Aalesund 0.84 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Aalesund landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.69 / defence 0.95 against Aalesund attack 0.74 / defence 1.12, drawn from 36/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 47% | Draw 31% | Aalesund 23%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 50%, Aalesund 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Sandefjord arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.50. Form held, and they took the win. Sandefjord managed 1 against a 4.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Aalesund managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.