Sandefjord 2-0 Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sandefjord at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sandefjord vs Kristiansund BK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jotun Arena plays host to Sandefjord versus Kristiansund BK in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sandefjord's overall Eliteserien record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Sandefjord's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Jotun Arena this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jotun Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Kristiansund BK have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Kristiansund BK's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Sandefjord's 2.00 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Kristiansund BK's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 4 wins for Sandefjord, 4 for Kristiansund BK and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Sandefjord half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Kristiansund BK half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandefjord 61% versus Kristiansund BK 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandefjord 66% | Kristiansund BK 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.16 xG and Kristiansund BK 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 0.677 / defence 0.867 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.799 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.661 / away 1.141. Sandefjord's attack strength of 0.677 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 37 Sandefjord games / 35 Kristiansund BK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandefjord 44% | Draw 31% | Kristiansund BK 25%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Kristiansund BK 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sandefjord are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sandefjord if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.95 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Sandefjord 30% | Kristiansund BK 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandefjord vs Kristiansund BK | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Jotun Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandefjord 44% | Draw 31% | Kristiansund BK 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Sandefjord 1.16 / Kristiansund BK 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Sandefjord attack 0.677 / def 0.867 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.799 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.661 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Sandefjord xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Kristiansund BK xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandefjord vs Kristiansund BK kick off?
Sandefjord vs Kristiansund BK kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Jotun Arena.
What was the final score in Sandefjord vs Kristiansund BK?
Sandefjord 2 - 0 Kristiansund BK.
Where is Sandefjord vs Kristiansund BK being played?
The match is being played at Jotun Arena.
What competition is Sandefjord vs Kristiansund BK part of?
Sandefjord vs Kristiansund BK is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sandefjord vs Kristiansund BK?
Our statistical model gives Sandefjord a 44% chance of winning, Kristiansund BK a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Kristiansund BK?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Sandefjord and Kristiansund BK will score (BTTS).
Will Sandefjord vs Kristiansund BK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Kristiansund BK?
Record (9 meetings): Sandefjord 4W | Draws 1 | Kristiansund BK 4W.
What form are Sandefjord and Kristiansund BK in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Kristiansund BK (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sandefjord's attack at 0.68x the league average against Kristiansund BK's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kristiansund BK's attack (0.80x) against Sandefjord's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 37/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (14.8%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
44%
2.25
31%
3.27
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Sandefjord xG
Total xG
1.95
0.79
Kristiansund BK xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
20%
4.96
8%
12.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 11.2 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 13.0 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.6 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandefjord vs Kristiansund BK?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Sandefjord and Kristiansund BK expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Sandefjord and 0.79 for Kristiansund BK, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandefjord vs Kristiansund BK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sandefjord's recent record stands at 24W 10D 25L from 59 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Kristiansund BK, meanwhile, have gone 17W 17D 25L across 59 games — 1.15 PPG, with D-L-L-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Sandefjord against 1.15 for Kristiansund BK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sandefjord have managed 18W 3D 8L from 29 games — 1.97 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — Sandefjord are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Kristiansund BK's away record stands at 7W 7D 15L across 29 trips, a 0.97 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sandefjord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sandefjord are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Kristiansund BK are on 1.12 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandefjord
Current Season
Kristiansund BK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandefjord and Kristiansund BK in coming into this match?
Sandefjord have gone 24W 10D 25L in their last 59 games (1.39 PPG), while Kristiansund BK have gone 17W 17D 25L in their last 59 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandefjord at home or Kristiansund BK away?
Sandefjord's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandefjord at home: 1.97 PPG; Kristiansund BK away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sandefjord won 6-0 on 20 Jul 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sandefjord have gone 5W 0D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Kristiansund BK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sandefjord
1
Draws
4
Kristiansund BK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandefjord and Kristiansund BK?
From 10 meetings on record, Sandefjord have won 5, Kristiansund BK have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sandefjord and Kristiansund BK last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Sandefjord 2-0 Kristiansund BK.
Who has won more matches between Sandefjord and Kristiansund BK?
Sandefjord have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sandefjord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandefjord 48%, Kristiansund BK 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Sandefjord) and 48% (Kristiansund BK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandefjord keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Kristiansund BK in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandefjord home games / Kristiansund BK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandefjord play Kristiansund BK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Sandefjord's recent matches and 55% of Kristiansund BK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sandefjord vs Kristiansund BK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Sandefjord's matches and 48% of Kristiansund BK's.
Do Sandefjord and Kristiansund BK tend to score early?
Sandefjord have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Kristiansund BK in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sandefjord cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Kristiansund BK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandefjord beat Kristiansund BK 2-0 at Jotun Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandefjord 1.16 xG and Kristiansund BK 0.79 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sandefjord beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandefjord attack 0.68 / defence 0.87 against Kristiansund BK attack 0.80 / defence 1.03, drawn from 37/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandefjord 44% | Draw 31% | Kristiansund BK 25%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandefjord 66%, Kristiansund BK 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandefjord's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandefjord 1.39 PPG, Kristiansund BK 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sandefjord win broke the near-deadlock. Sandefjord (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.