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Prediction vindicated as Rosenborg edge out Valerenga 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rosenborg beat Valerenga 1-0 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 2.19 xG and Valerenga 1.25 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rosenborg fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Valerenga landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 0.95 / defence 0.98 against Valerenga attack 0.91 / defence 1.29, drawn from 57/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 58% | Draw 22% | Valerenga 20%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 52%, Valerenga 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rosenborg's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Valerenga's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rosenborg 1.33 PPG, Valerenga 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rosenborg win broke the near-deadlock. Rosenborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Valerenga (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights