Rosenborg 1-0 Valerenga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rosenborg at 58% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rosenborg vs Valerenga encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rosenborg host Valerenga at Lerkendal Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 9 November 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Rosenborg — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.40 conceded. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg at Lerkendal Stadion this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Rosenborg are significantly better at Lerkendal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valerenga stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Valerenga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Valerenga have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Valerenga are 1.30 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Rosenborg have won 4, Valerenga 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2025, ended 2–0 with Rosenborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Rosenborg in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Valerenga in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rosenborg 56% and Valerenga 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 52% | Valerenga 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 2.19 xG and Valerenga 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 0.948 / defence 0.979 | Valerenga attack 0.912 / defence 1.287. League average goals — home 1.792 / away 1.403. Valerenga bring a strong defensive rating of 1.287 — this is suppressing Rosenborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Rosenborg games / 27 Valerenga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 58% | Draw 22% | Valerenga 20%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.72 | Draw 4.55 | Valerenga 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Rosenborg (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.19 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
Rosenborg dominate the H2H record, yet Valerenga are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rosenborg at 58% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Valerenga (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.44 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 70% | Valerenga 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Valerenga | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Nov 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 58% | Draw 22% | Valerenga 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 64% | xG Rosenborg 2.19 / Valerenga 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 0.948 / def 0.979 | Valerenga attack 0.912 / def 1.287 | league avg home 1.792 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Valerenga xG
64%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Valerenga kick off?
Rosenborg vs Valerenga kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 9 November 2025 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Valerenga?
Rosenborg 1 - 0 Valerenga.
Where is Rosenborg vs Valerenga being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Valerenga part of?
Rosenborg vs Valerenga is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Valerenga?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 58% chance of winning, Valerenga a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Valerenga?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Rosenborg and Valerenga will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Valerenga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Valerenga?
Record (8 meetings): Rosenborg 4W | Draws 2 | Valerenga 2W.
What form are Rosenborg and Valerenga in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Valerenga (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Rosenborg's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Valerenga's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.19. The same calculation in reverse, Valerenga's attack versus Rosenborg's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
58%
1.73
22%
4.56
20%
4.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
3.44
1.25
Valerenga xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
4.93
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
11%
8.91
Win to Nil
16%
6.06
2%
43.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Valerenga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Valerenga expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.25 for Valerenga, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Valerenga?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rosenborg's recent record stands at 9W 9D 9L from 27 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valerenga, meanwhile, have gone 12W 4D 11L across 27 games — 1.48 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Valerenga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rosenborg on 1.33 PPG, Valerenga on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Rosenborg have managed 5W 6D 2L from 13 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Valerenga's away record stands at 4W 1D 8L across 13 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.48 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valerenga's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rosenborg are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Valerenga are on 1.67 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga in 67%.
Last 27 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Blended
Valerenga
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Valerenga in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 9W 9D 9L in their last 27 games (1.33 PPG), while Valerenga have gone 12W 4D 11L in their last 27 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Valerenga away?
Rosenborg's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 1.62 PPG; Valerenga away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Rosenborg or Valerenga been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Valerenga in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 May 2022, when Rosenborg won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rosenborg's record when hosting Valerenga specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Rosenborg
2
Draws
3
Valerenga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Valerenga?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 5, Valerenga have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Valerenga last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Rosenborg 0-2 Valerenga.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Valerenga?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 62%, Valerenga 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Rosenborg) and 54% (Valerenga).
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Valerenga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Valerenga?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Rosenborg's games and 62% of Valerenga's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Valerenga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Rosenborg's recent games and 54% of Valerenga's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rosenborg and Valerenga tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Valerenga in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rosenborg edge out Valerenga 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Valerenga 1-0 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 2.19 xG and Valerenga 1.25 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rosenborg fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Valerenga landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 0.95 / defence 0.98 against Valerenga attack 0.91 / defence 1.29, drawn from 57/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 58% | Draw 22% | Valerenga 20%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 52%, Valerenga 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Valerenga's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rosenborg 1.33 PPG, Valerenga 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rosenborg win broke the near-deadlock. Rosenborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Valerenga (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.