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Shock result as Sarpsborg 08 FF defy the odds to beat Rosenborg 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sarpsborg 08 FF beat Rosenborg 2-3 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.86 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.97 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF outscored their 0.97 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.03 / defence 0.74 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.03 / defence 1.06, drawn from 52/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 58% | Draw 23% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 19%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Sarpsborg 08 FF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 56%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rosenborg's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rosenborg 1.67 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sarpsborg 08 FF win broke the near-deadlock. Rosenborg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights