Rosenborg 2-0 Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lillestrom at 37% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rosenborg vs Lillestrom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rosenborg and Lillestrom meet at Lerkendal Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 8). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 13:30 UK time.
Form
Rosenborg (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Rosenborg's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Rosenborg are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Lillestrom's record over their last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L (0.40 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Lillestrom's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 0D 9L (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Rosenborg. A 0.50 PPG lead over Lillestrom (0.90 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Rosenborg's last 10 home games and Lillestrom's last 10 away games) — Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Lillestrom in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head sample leans to Lillestrom, who have 5 wins from 8 H2H matches compared to 2 for the hosts, with 1 draw.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.2 per game across the 8 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 15 Sep 2024, ended Rosenborg 1–1 Lillestrom — a draw.
The H2H data backs the away side. Lillestrom have won 5 of 8 H2H matches, and at 3.2 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
Rosenborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Lillestrom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rosenborg 50% versus Lillestrom 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 50% | Lillestrom 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 0.95 xG and Lillestrom 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 0.904 / defence 0.945 | Lillestrom attack 0.964 / defence 0.638. League average goals — home 1.645 / away 1.157. Lillestrom bring a tight defence (rating 0.638, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Rosenborg's projected output down. Data: built from Rosenborg's last 37 games and Lillestrom's last 7.
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 32% | Draw 31% | Lillestrom 37%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 3.14 | Draw 3.25 | Lillestrom 2.68. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lillestrom as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Lillestrom 5 wins from 8 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Note a divergence: in-form Rosenborg (0.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lillestrom if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 68% — low conviction — though recent form (Rosenborg's last 10 home games and Lillestrom's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 8 H2H matches point the other way.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Rosenborg 70% (last 10 home games) | Lillestrom 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 8 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 32% | Draw 31% | Lillestrom 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Rosenborg 0.95 / Lillestrom 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 0.904 / def 0.945 | Lillestrom attack 0.964 / def 0.638 | league avg home 1.645 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Lillestrom (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Lillestrom xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rosenborg vs Lillestrom FAQs
What time does Rosenborg vs Lillestrom kick off?
Rosenborg vs Lillestrom kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Lillestrom?
Rosenborg 2 - 0 Lillestrom.
Where is Rosenborg vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Lillestrom part of?
Rosenborg vs Lillestrom is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 8) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 32% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Lillestrom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Rosenborg and Lillestrom will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Rosenborg vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Rosenborg's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Lillestrom's defensive record (0.64x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. Flip it around — Lillestrom's attack (0.96x) against Rosenborg's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from Rosenborg's last 37 games and Lillestrom's last 7 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lillestrom Win
32%
3.14
31%
3.25
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
2.00
1.05
Lillestrom xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
11%
9.01
14%
6.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 14.2 | 7.5 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rosenborg vs Lillestrom Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.05 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Lillestrom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 30 outings, Rosenborg have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 11W 9D 10L record — D-L-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Lillestrom's form line: 7W 3D 20L from 30 games, 0.80 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Rosenborg are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lillestrom.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Rosenborg have posted 1.80 PPG from their last 15 home games (7W 6D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Lillestrom have gone 4W 0D 11L from their last 15 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rosenborg are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Lillestrom are on 1.10 scored and 2.10 conceded.
Defensively: Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Current Season
Lillestrom
Pre-Season
Rosenborg (Home) vs Lillestrom (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rosenborg
Current Season
Lillestrom
Pre-Season
❓ Rosenborg vs Lillestrom Form FAQs
What form are Rosenborg and Lillestrom in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 11W 9D 10L in their last 30 games (1.40 PPG), while Lillestrom have gone 7W 3D 20L in their last 30 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Lillestrom away?
Rosenborg's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 1.80 PPG; Lillestrom away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Rosenborg or Lillestrom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Lillestrom in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Rosenborg and Lillestrom, the earliest from June 2021. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was on 9 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Rosenborg have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won Rosenborg 4-0 Lillestrom on 21 Aug 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 3W 0D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Lillestrom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Rosenborg
1
Draws
5
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Rosenborg vs Lillestrom H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Lillestrom?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Rosenborg have won 4, Lillestrom have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Lillestrom last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 August 2026: Lillestrom 0-2 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Lillestrom?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 53%, Lillestrom 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Rosenborg) and 73% (Lillestrom).
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Lillestrom in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rosenborg vs Lillestrom Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rosenborg and Lillestrom matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Rosenborg's recent matches and 53% of Lillestrom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Rosenborg and Lillestrom matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Rosenborg's recent games and 73% of Lillestrom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rosenborg and Lillestrom matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Rosenborg's recent matches and 67% of Lillestrom's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rosenborg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Lillestrom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Lillestrom 2-0 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 0.95 xG and Lillestrom 1.05 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Rosenborg beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lillestrom landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 0.90 / defence 0.94 against Lillestrom attack 0.96 / defence 0.64, drawn from 37/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 32% | Draw 31% | Lillestrom 37%, with Lillestrom to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Rosenborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 50%, Lillestrom 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lillestrom's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.80. That form edge translated into the three points. Rosenborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Lillestrom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.