🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Rosenborg edge out Haugesund 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rosenborg beat Haugesund 1-0 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.97 xG and Haugesund 0.68 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rosenborg fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 0.92 / defence 0.63 against Haugesund attack 0.77 / defence 1.38, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 67% | Draw 23% | Haugesund 10%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 67%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 65%, Haugesund 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rosenborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Haugesund's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win. Rosenborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights