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Poisson model favours Rosenborg (67%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Rosenborg face Haugesund.

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Analysis & Preview

A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Haugesund travel to Lerkendal Stadion to take on Rosenborg. The game is scheduled for Friday 16 May 2025, 17:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Eliteserien games this season, Rosenborg have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

At home at Lerkendal Stadion, Rosenborg have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Haugesund stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

Haugesund away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Rosenborg are in the better shape of the two on current Eliteserien data — 0.90 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H

The fixture history tells a clear story: Rosenborg have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 8 past contests while Haugesund have managed just 1 wins.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2024, ended 4–0 with Rosenborg winning.

The historical record gives Rosenborg a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Rosenborg in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

Haugesund in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rosenborg 62% versus Haugesund 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 65% | Haugesund 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.97 xG and Haugesund 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 0.922 / defence 0.633 | Haugesund attack 0.766 / defence 1.379. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.397. Haugesund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.379 — this is suppressing Rosenborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Rosenborg's defence rating of 0.633 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 Rosenborg games / 37 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Rosenborg 67% | Draw 23% | Haugesund 10%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.49 | Draw 4.35 | Haugesund 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Rosenborg (67%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Rosenborg at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Rosenborg 60% | Haugesund 50%.

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