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Rosenborg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ham-Kam.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rosenborg beat Ham-Kam 2-0 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.33 xG and Ham-Kam 0.75 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 0.85 / defence 0.69 against Ham-Kam attack 0.84 / defence 1.04, drawn from 44/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 50% | Draw 29% | Ham-Kam 21%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 55%, Ham-Kam 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rosenborg's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Ham-Kam's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.10. That form edge translated into the three points. Rosenborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights