🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Rosenborg at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Lerkendal Stadion plays host to Rosenborg versus Ham-Kam in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 13 July 2025 at 16:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Rosenborg have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Rosenborg at Lerkendal Stadion this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lerkendal Stadion.

Ham-Kam's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Ham-Kam away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Rosenborg, 1.00 for Ham-Kam — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record favours Rosenborg, who have won 4 of the last 6 meetings against Ham-Kam — a 1D 1W return for the visitors.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2024, ended 2–0 with Rosenborg winning.

The historical record gives Rosenborg a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading Data

Rosenborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Ham-Kam goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rosenborg 55% versus Ham-Kam 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 55% | Ham-Kam 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.33 xG and Ham-Kam 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 0.851 / defence 0.686 | Ham-Kam attack 0.836 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.504 / away 1.301. Rosenborg's defence rating of 0.686 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Rosenborg games / 42 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Rosenborg 50% | Draw 29% | Ham-Kam 21%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Ham-Kam 4.76. Rosenborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Rosenborg as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rosenborg if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 50% | Ham-Kam 40% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights