Rosenborg 2-0 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Rosenborg at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lerkendal Stadion plays host to Rosenborg versus Ham-Kam in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 13 July 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rosenborg have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg at Lerkendal Stadion this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lerkendal Stadion.
Ham-Kam's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ham-Kam away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Rosenborg, 1.00 for Ham-Kam — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Rosenborg, who have won 4 of the last 6 meetings against Ham-Kam — a 1D 1W return for the visitors.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2024, ended 2–0 with Rosenborg winning.
The historical record gives Rosenborg a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Rosenborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Ham-Kam goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rosenborg 55% versus Ham-Kam 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 55% | Ham-Kam 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.33 xG and Ham-Kam 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 0.851 / defence 0.686 | Ham-Kam attack 0.836 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.504 / away 1.301. Rosenborg's defence rating of 0.686 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Rosenborg games / 42 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 50% | Draw 29% | Ham-Kam 21%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Ham-Kam 4.76. Rosenborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rosenborg as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rosenborg if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 50% | Ham-Kam 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Jul 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 50% | Draw 29% | Ham-Kam 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 39% | xG Rosenborg 1.33 / Ham-Kam 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 0.851 / def 0.686 | Ham-Kam attack 0.836 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.504 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Ham-Kam xG
39%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 13 July 2025 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam?
Rosenborg 2 - 0 Ham-Kam.
Where is Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam part of?
Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 50% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Rosenborg and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Ham-Kam?
Record (6 meetings): Rosenborg 4W | Draws 1 | Ham-Kam 1W.
What form are Rosenborg and Ham-Kam in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Ham-Kam (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Rosenborg's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Ham-Kam's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. Flip it around — Ham-Kam's attack (0.84x) against Rosenborg's defence (0.69x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from 44/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
50%
1.98
29%
3.47
21%
4.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
2.08
0.75
Ham-Kam xG
1.98
50%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
4.82
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
24%
4.18
5%
18.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 9.3 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 12.4 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 8.3 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Rosenborg and 0.75 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 42 outings, Rosenborg have picked up 1.74 PPG on a 21W 10D 11L record — W-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ham-Kam's form line: 11W 13D 18L from 42 games, 1.10 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-D. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Rosenborg are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ham-Kam.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Rosenborg have posted 2.00 PPG from 21 outings (12W 6D 3L).
On the road, Ham-Kam have gone 5W 7D 9L from 21 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rosenborg are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 1.12 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Blended
Ham-Kam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 21W 10D 11L in their last 42 games (1.74 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 11W 13D 18L in their last 42 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Ham-Kam away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.00 PPG; Ham-Kam away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Rosenborg or Ham-Kam been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Ham-Kam in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won 4-0 on 4 Jun 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Ham-Kam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Rosenborg
1
Draws
2
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Ham-Kam?
From 9 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 6, Ham-Kam have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Rosenborg 4-0 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Ham-Kam?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 57%, Ham-Kam 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Rosenborg) and 48% (Ham-Kam).
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Ham-Kam in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Ham-Kam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Rosenborg's recent matches and 48% of Ham-Kam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Rosenborg's recent games and 48% of Ham-Kam's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rosenborg and Ham-Kam tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Ham-Kam in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rosenborg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ham-Kam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Ham-Kam 2-0 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.33 xG and Ham-Kam 0.75 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 0.85 / defence 0.69 against Ham-Kam attack 0.84 / defence 1.04, drawn from 44/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 50% | Draw 29% | Ham-Kam 21%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 55%, Ham-Kam 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ham-Kam's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.10. That form edge translated into the three points. Rosenborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.