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Shock result as Brann defy the odds to beat Rosenborg 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Brann beat Rosenborg 2-3 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.60 xG and Brann 1.37 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Brann outscored their 1.37 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.02 / defence 0.88 against Brann attack 1.13 / defence 0.91, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 43% | Draw 25% | Brann 32%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Brann win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 57%, Brann 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rosenborg's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Brann's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rosenborg 1.63 PPG, Brann 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brann win broke the near-deadlock. Rosenborg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Brann (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights