Rosenborg 2-3 Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 43%, yet in-form Brann provide a compelling counter-argument — this Rosenborg vs Brann fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rosenborg and Brann meet at Lerkendal Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 October 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rosenborg have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W D L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Lerkendal Stadion, Rosenborg have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Rosenborg are significantly better at Lerkendal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Brann's overall Eliteserien record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Brann have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Brann are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Brann hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 7 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Brann have won 4 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Rosenborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Brann goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rosenborg 56% versus Brann 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 57% | Brann 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.60 xG and Brann 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.020 / defence 0.879 | Brann attack 1.129 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.726 / away 1.382. Data: 54 Rosenborg games / 54 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 43% | Draw 25% | Brann 32%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | Brann 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rosenborg as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Brann (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rosenborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 60% | Brann 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Oct 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 43% | Draw 25% | Brann 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Rosenborg 1.60 / Brann 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.020 / def 0.879 | Brann attack 1.129 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.726 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Brann xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Brann kick off?
Rosenborg vs Brann kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 26 October 2025 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Brann?
Rosenborg 2 - 3 Brann.
Where is Rosenborg vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Brann part of?
Rosenborg vs Brann is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 43% chance of winning, Brann a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Rosenborg and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Brann?
Record (7 meetings): Rosenborg 1W | Draws 2 | Brann 4W.
What form are Rosenborg and Brann in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Brann (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rosenborg's attack at 1.02x the league average against Brann's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Brann's attack (1.13x) against Rosenborg's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
43%
2.35
25%
3.96
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
2.98
1.37
Brann xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
20%
4.98
Win to Nil
11%
9.26
6%
15.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.2 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.0 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.37 for Brann, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Brann?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rosenborg come into this having played 54 games, going 25W 13D 16L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-D. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Brann sit at 2.00 PPG from 54 outings (32W 12D 10L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.63 PPG for Rosenborg against 2.00 for Brann. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Rosenborg's home form reads 15W 7D 4L across 26 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Brann have taken 1.77 points per game from 26 outings (13W 7D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rosenborg are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.87 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Blended
Brann
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Brann in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 25W 13D 16L in their last 54 games (1.63 PPG), while Brann have gone 32W 12D 10L in their last 54 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Brann away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.00 PPG; Brann away: 1.77 PPG.
Have Rosenborg or Brann been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Brann in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Brann won 3-0 on 4 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Brann — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Rosenborg
3
Draws
6
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Brann?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 1, Brann have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Brann 3-2 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Brann?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 58%, Brann 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Rosenborg) and 69% (Brann). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Brann?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Rosenborg's games and 58% of Brann's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Rosenborg's matches and 69% of Brann's.
Do Rosenborg and Brann tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Brann in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Brann defy the odds to beat Rosenborg 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann beat Rosenborg 2-3 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.60 xG and Brann 1.37 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Brann outscored their 1.37 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.02 / defence 0.88 against Brann attack 1.13 / defence 0.91, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 43% | Draw 25% | Brann 32%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Brann win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 57%, Brann 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Brann's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rosenborg 1.63 PPG, Brann 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brann win broke the near-deadlock. Rosenborg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Brann (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.