ODD Ballklubb 3-0 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ODD Ballklubb at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this ODD Ballklubb vs Viking fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Viking travel to Skagerak Arena to take on ODD Ballklubb. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 4 November 2020, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
ODD Ballklubb — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ODD Ballklubb at Skagerak Arena this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — ODD Ballklubb are significantly better at Skagerak Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Viking have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Viking's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: ODD Ballklubb 1.70 PPG, Viking 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. ODD Ballklubb register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Viking in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for ODD Ballklubb, 0 for Viking and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Jul 2020, ended 2–1 with ODD Ballklubb winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
ODD Ballklubb in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Viking in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ODD Ballklubb 50% versus Viking 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ODD Ballklubb 59% | Viking 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.91 xG and Viking 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.108 / defence 1.059 | Viking attack 0.958 / defence 1.281. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.389. Viking bring a strong defensive rating of 1.281 — this is suppressing ODD Ballklubb's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 ODD Ballklubb games / 22 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 49% | Draw 23% | Viking 28%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 2.04 | Draw 4.35 | Viking 3.57. ODD Ballklubb hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, ODD Ballklubb are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on ODD Ballklubb offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.32 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: ODD Ballklubb 60% | Viking 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 4 Nov 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 49% | Draw 23% | Viking 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG ODD Ballklubb 1.91 / Viking 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.108 / def 1.059 | Viking attack 0.958 / def 1.281 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Viking xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Viking kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Viking kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 4 November 2020 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Viking?
ODD Ballklubb 3 - 0 Viking.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Viking part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Viking is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 49% chance of winning, Viking a 28% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Viking?
Record (1 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 1W | Draws 0 | Viking 0W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Viking in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Viking (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates ODD Ballklubb's attack at 1.11x the league average against Viking's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Viking's attack versus ODD Ballklubb's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
49%
2.04
23%
4.42
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
3.32
1.41
Viking xG
2.04
49%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
15%
6.75
Win to Nil
12%
8.32
4%
23.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 9.7 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.41 for Viking, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
ODD Ballklubb's recent record stands at 12W 3D 7L from 22 games, a 1.77 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Viking, meanwhile, have gone 8W 6D 8L across 22 games — 1.36 PPG, with W-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours ODD Ballklubb by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Viking heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, ODD Ballklubb have managed 7W 2D 2L from 11 games — 2.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Viking's away record stands at 4W 3D 4L across 11 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ODD Ballklubb come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 1.77 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking in 64%.
Last 22 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
Viking
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Viking in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 12W 3D 7L in their last 22 games (1.77 PPG), while Viking have gone 8W 6D 8L in their last 22 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Viking away?
ODD Ballklubb's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 2.09 PPG; Viking away: 1.36 PPG.
Have ODD Ballklubb or Viking been keeping clean sheets recently?
ODD Ballklubb have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Viking in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between ODD Ballklubb and Viking runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 October 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Nov 2020, when ODD Ballklubb won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
ODD Ballklubb's record when hosting Viking specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
ODD Ballklubb
4
Draws
2
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Viking?
From 10 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 4, Viking have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 20 October 2024, when Viking 3-3 ODD Ballklubb.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Viking?
ODD Ballklubb have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ODD Ballklubb 64%, Viking 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for ODD Ballklubb and 64% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Viking in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Viking?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 54% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 64% of Viking's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Viking tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Viking in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant ODD Ballklubb run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Viking.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ODD Ballklubb beat Viking 3-0 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 1.91 xG and Viking 1.41 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. ODD Ballklubb beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Viking landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 1.11 / defence 1.06 against Viking attack 0.96 / defence 1.28, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 49% | Draw 23% | Viking 28%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 59%, Viking 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Viking's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, ODD Ballklubb arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.36. The form guide was vindicated by the result. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Viking (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.