Stabaek 4-0 Aalesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stabaek at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stabaek vs Aalesund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Stabaek and Aalesund meet at Nadderud Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 18 October 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Stabaek have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Stabaek, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Nadderud Stadion, Stabaek have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Stabaek are significantly better at Nadderud Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Aalesund (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Aalesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aalesund's away record: 0W 2D 7L from 9 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.22 PPG). Away from home they average 1.22 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Stabaek's favour (0.90 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Stabaek, 0 for Aalesund and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Jul 2020, ended 3–1 with Stabaek winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Stabaek half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Aalesund half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 70%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stabaek 50% and Aalesund 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Stabaek 55% | Aalesund 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.70 xG and Aalesund 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.713 / defence 1.009 | Aalesund attack 0.808 / defence 1.609. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.391. Stabaek's attack strength of 0.713 is below the league average — the 1.70 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Aalesund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.609 — this is suppressing Stabaek's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Stabaek games / 20 Aalesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stabaek 51% | Draw 24% | Aalesund 25%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Aalesund 4.00. Stabaek hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stabaek are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stabaek if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Stabaek 30% | Aalesund 67%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs Aalesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Oct 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 51% | Draw 24% | Aalesund 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Stabaek 1.70 / Aalesund 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.713 / def 1.009 | Aalesund attack 0.808 / def 1.609 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.391 • Poisson stance: Stabaek (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Aalesund xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stabaek vs Aalesund kick off?
Stabaek vs Aalesund kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 18 October 2020 at Nadderud Stadion.
What was the final score in Stabaek vs Aalesund?
Stabaek 4 - 0 Aalesund.
Where is Stabaek vs Aalesund being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs Aalesund part of?
Stabaek vs Aalesund is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs Aalesund?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 51% chance of winning, Aalesund a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Stabaek the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Aalesund?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Stabaek and Aalesund will score (BTTS).
Will Stabaek vs Aalesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Aalesund?
Record (1 meetings): Stabaek 1W | Draws 0 | Aalesund 0W.
What form are Stabaek and Aalesund in?
Stabaek (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Aalesund (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Stabaek's attack rating (0.71) and Aalesund's defence rating (1.61), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Aalesund's attack (0.81x) against Stabaek's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stabaek Win
51%
1.98
24%
4.15
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Stabaek xG
Total xG
2.83
1.13
Aalesund xG
1.98
51%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
18%
5.47
Win to Nil
16%
6.14
5%
21.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.3 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs Aalesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Stabaek and Aalesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Stabaek and 1.13 for Aalesund, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs Aalesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Stabaek come into this having played 20 games, going 6W 7D 7L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-L. The sample for Stabaek is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Aalesund sit at 0.35 PPG from 20 outings (1W 4D 15L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Aalesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stabaek carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.90 PPG clear of Aalesund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Stabaek's home form reads 4W 2D 3L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Aalesund have taken 0.22 points per game from 9 outings (0W 2D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stabaek come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Stabaek are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Aalesund are on 1.25 scored and 2.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Aalesund in 80%.
Last 20 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Blended
Aalesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stabaek and Aalesund in coming into this match?
Stabaek have gone 6W 7D 7L in their last 20 games (1.25 PPG), while Aalesund have gone 1W 4D 15L in their last 20 (0.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stabaek at home or Aalesund away?
Stabaek's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stabaek at home: 1.56 PPG; Aalesund away: 0.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 September 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Stabaek won 4-0 on 18 Oct 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stabaek have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Aalesund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Stabaek
1
Draws
0
Aalesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Aalesund?
From 4 meetings on record, Stabaek have won 3, Aalesund have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stabaek and Aalesund last play each other?
They last met on 23 September 2023, when Aalesund 1-1 Stabaek.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and Aalesund?
Stabaek have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stabaek see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Aalesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stabaek 33%, Aalesund 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Stabaek) and 67% (Aalesund).
On the defensive side: Stabaek keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Stabaek have failed to score in 33% of games; Aalesund in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / Aalesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stabaek play Aalesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Stabaek's recent matches and 67% of Aalesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stabaek vs Aalesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Stabaek's recent games and 67% of Aalesund's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stabaek and Aalesund tend to score early?
Stabaek have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Aalesund in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Stabaek run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Aalesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stabaek beat Aalesund 4-0 at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 1.70 xG and Aalesund 1.13 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Stabaek beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Aalesund landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.71 / defence 1.01 against Aalesund attack 0.81 / defence 1.61, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 51% | Draw 24% | Aalesund 25%, with Stabaek to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stabaek 55%, Aalesund 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stabaek's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Aalesund's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Stabaek arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.35. That form edge translated into the three points. Stabaek (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Aalesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 3.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.