Molde 0-1 Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Molde at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Molde vs Lillestrom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Molde and Lillestrom meet at Aker Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 3). This fixture gets under way on Monday 6 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
Molde (all games): 4W 0D 6L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Molde have gone 7W 0D 3L in their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Molde are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Lillestrom have collected 0.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Lillestrom away from home: 1W 0D 9L from their last 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Molde. A 0.80 PPG lead over Lillestrom (1.20 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Molde's last 10 home games and Lillestrom's last 10 away games) — Molde have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Lillestrom in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 8 H2H matches in our data, Molde edge it 4 wins to 2, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.1 per game across the 8 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 11 Aug 2024, ended Molde 2–1 Lillestrom — a Molde win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.1 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Molde — key trading statistics (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Lillestrom — key trading statistics (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Molde 47% versus Lillestrom 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Molde 60% | Lillestrom 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Molde 2.06 xG and Lillestrom 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Molde attack 1.105 / defence 0.863 | Lillestrom attack 1.040 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.739 / away 1.306. Data: built from Molde's last 32 games and Lillestrom's last 1. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Molde 58% | Draw 21% | Lillestrom 21%. Fair-value odds: Molde 1.73 | Draw 4.76 | Lillestrom 4.74. The model has a clear lean to Molde (58%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (2.06 / 1.17) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Molde at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Molde's last 10 home games and Lillestrom's last 10 away games) averaging 3.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Molde 60% (last 10 home games) | Lillestrom 60% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Molde 32 games, Lillestrom 1) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Molde vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 3 | Venue: Aker Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 6 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Molde 58% | Draw 21% | Lillestrom 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Molde 2.06 / Lillestrom 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Molde attack 1.105 / def 0.863 | Lillestrom attack 1.040 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.739 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Molde (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Molde xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Lillestrom xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Molde vs Lillestrom FAQs
What time does Molde vs Lillestrom kick off?
Molde vs Lillestrom kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Monday 6 April 2026 at Aker Stadion.
What was the final score in Molde vs Lillestrom?
Molde 0 - 1 Lillestrom.
Where is Molde vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Aker Stadion.
What competition is Molde vs Lillestrom part of?
Molde vs Lillestrom is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 3) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Molde vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Molde a 58% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 21% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Molde vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Molde and Lillestrom will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Molde vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Molde's attack rating (1.10) and Lillestrom's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 2.06 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lillestrom's attack (1.04x) against Molde's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from Molde's last 32 games and Lillestrom's last 1, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
58%
1.73
21%
4.76
21%
4.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Molde xG
Total xG
3.24
1.17
Lillestrom xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.76
21%
Draw
4.74
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
13%
7.89
Win to Nil
18%
5.57
3%
37.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Molde vs Lillestrom Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Molde vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Molde and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Molde and 1.17 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Molde vs Lillestrom?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Molde's recent record stands at 12W 3D 15L from 30 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Lillestrom, meanwhile, have gone 7W 3D 20L across 30 games — 0.80 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Molde by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lillestrom heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Molde have managed 8W 1D 6L from their last 15 home games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lillestrom's away record stands at 4W 0D 11L across their last 15 away games, a 0.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Molde come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Molde are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Lillestrom are on 1.10 scored and 2.10 conceded.
Last 30 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Molde
Current Season
Lillestrom
Pre-Season
Molde (Home) vs Lillestrom (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Molde
Current Season
Lillestrom
Pre-Season
❓ Molde vs Lillestrom Form FAQs
What form are Molde and Lillestrom in coming into this match?
Molde have gone 12W 3D 15L in their last 30 games (1.30 PPG), while Lillestrom have gone 7W 3D 20L in their last 30 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Molde at home or Lillestrom away?
Molde's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Molde at home: 1.67 PPG; Lillestrom away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Molde or Lillestrom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Molde have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Lillestrom in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to July 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Molde won Molde 4-0 Lillestrom on 12 Nov 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Molde have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Lillestrom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Molde
3
Draws
3
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Molde vs Lillestrom H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Lillestrom?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Molde have won 4, Lillestrom have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Molde and Lillestrom last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Lillestrom 2-2 Molde.
Who has won more matches between Molde and Lillestrom?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Molde 53%, Lillestrom 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Molde and 73% for Lillestrom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lillestrom in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Molde home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Molde vs Lillestrom Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Molde and Lillestrom matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Molde's recent matches and 53% of Lillestrom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Molde and Lillestrom matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Molde's matches and 73% of Lillestrom's.
Do Molde and Lillestrom matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 87% of Molde's recent matches and 67% of Lillestrom's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lillestrom defy the odds to beat Molde 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lillestrom beat Molde 0-1 at Aker Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Molde 2.06 xG and Lillestrom 1.17 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Molde fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Molde attack 1.10 / defence 0.86 against Lillestrom attack 1.04 / defence 1.07, drawn from 32/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Molde 58% | Draw 21% | Lillestrom 21%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Lillestrom win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Molde 60%, Lillestrom 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Molde's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lillestrom's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.80. Form was overturned, with Lillestrom winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Molde (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward. Lillestrom (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.