Molde 2-1 Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Brann at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Molde vs Brann encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Brann make the trip to Aker Stadion to face Molde in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 November 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Molde's overall Eliteserien record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Molde's home record at Aker Stadion: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Brann have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Brann have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Brann arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Molde register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Brann in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Molde, who have won 5 of the last 6 meetings against Brann — a 0D 1W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2024, ended 3–1 with Molde winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Molde and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Molde — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
Brann — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Molde 59% versus Brann 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Molde 71% | Brann 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Molde 1.85 xG and Brann 2.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Molde attack 1.466 / defence 1.247 | Brann attack 1.359 / defence 0.843. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.268. Molde carry an above-average attack strength of 1.466 — their λ of 1.85 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Brann have an above-average attack strength of 1.359 — the away xG of 2.15 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 58 Molde games / 58 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Molde 34% | Draw 20% | Brann 45%. Fair-value odds: Molde 2.94 | Draw 5.00 | Brann 2.22. Brann hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 4.00. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.00 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 2.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Molde dominate the H2H record, yet Brann are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Brann as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 4.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 76% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 4.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 74% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Molde 70% | Brann 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Molde vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Aker Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Nov 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Molde 34% | Draw 20% | Brann 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 74% | xG Molde 1.85 / Brann 2.15 • Poisson strength factors: Molde attack 1.466 / def 1.247 | Brann attack 1.359 / def 0.843 | league avg home 1.499 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Brann (45%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Molde xG
Expected Goals
2.15
Brann xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Molde vs Brann kick off?
Molde vs Brann kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Aker Stadion.
What was the final score in Molde vs Brann?
Molde 2 - 1 Brann.
Where is Molde vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Aker Stadion.
What competition is Molde vs Brann part of?
Molde vs Brann is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Molde vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Molde a 34% chance of winning, Brann a 45% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Molde vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Molde and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Molde vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Brann?
Record (6 meetings): Molde 5W | Draws 0 | Brann 1W.
What form are Molde and Brann in?
Molde (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Brann (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Molde vs Brann?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Molde's attack rating (1.47) and Brann's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Brann's attack (1.36x) against Molde's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 2.15.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (7.8%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
34%
2.94
20%
4.88
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.3%
Draw
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Molde xG
Total xG
4.00
2.15
Brann xG
2.94
34%
Home win
4.88
20%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.34
26%
BTTS No
3.92
Clean Sheet
12%
8.58
16%
6.38
Win to Nil
4%
25.19
7%
14.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Molde vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are Molde and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Molde and 2.15 for Brann, a combined total of 4.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Molde vs Brann?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 58 outings, Molde have picked up 1.72 PPG on a 29W 13D 16L record — W-L-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Brann's form line: 36W 11D 11L from 58 games, 2.05 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.72 PPG for Molde against 2.05 for Brann. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Molde have posted 1.86 PPG from 29 outings (16W 6D 7L).
On the road, Brann have gone 15W 7D 7L from 29 away games — 1.79 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Molde are averaging 2.19 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.86 scored and 1.12 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
Last 58 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Molde
Current Season
Brann
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Molde and Brann in coming into this match?
Molde have gone 29W 13D 16L in their last 58 games (1.72 PPG), while Brann have gone 36W 11D 11L in their last 58 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Molde at home or Brann away?
Molde's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Molde at home: 1.86 PPG; Brann away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Molde or Brann been keeping clean sheets recently?
Molde have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Brann in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Molde won 4-0 on 16 May 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Molde have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Brann — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Molde
0
Draws
2
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Brann?
From 10 meetings on record, Molde have won 8, Brann have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Molde and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Molde 1-2 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Molde and Brann?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Molde 59%, Brann 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Molde and 55% for Brann. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Molde keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Brann in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Molde home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Molde play Brann?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Molde's games and 55% of Brann's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Molde vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Molde's matches and 55% of Brann's.
Do Molde and Brann tend to score early?
Molde have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Brann in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Molde defy the odds to beat Brann 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde beat Brann 2-1 at Aker Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Molde 1.85 xG and Brann 2.15 xG, a combined 4.00. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Brann landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Molde attack 1.47 / defence 1.25 against Brann attack 1.36 / defence 0.84, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Molde 34% | Draw 20% | Brann 45%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Molde win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Molde 71%, Brann 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Molde's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Brann's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Molde 1.72 PPG, Brann 2.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Molde win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.