Lillestrom 3-2 Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lillestrom at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lillestrom vs Brann fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lillestrom and Brann meet at Åråsen Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lillestrom have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lillestrom at Åråsen Stadion this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Brann (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brann's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Lillestrom have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Brann in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 7 meetings, Brann have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Lillestrom's 1, with 2 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Sep 2026, ended 2–1 with Lillestrom winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Brann have won 4 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Lillestrom half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Brann half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lillestrom 44% versus Brann 74%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Lillestrom 52% | Brann 78%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 1.54 xG and Brann 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 0.888 / defence 1.110 | Brann attack 0.852 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.723 / away 1.534. Data: 23 Lillestrom games / 53 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 39% | Draw 26% | Brann 35%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Brann 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lillestrom are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lillestrom if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lillestrom 60% | Brann 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Åråsen Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 39% | Draw 26% | Brann 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Lillestrom 1.54 / Brann 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 0.888 / def 1.110 | Brann attack 0.852 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.723 / away 1.534 • Poisson stance: Lillestrom (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Brann xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lillestrom vs Brann kick off?
Lillestrom vs Brann kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 25 October 2026 at Åråsen Stadion.
What was the final score in Lillestrom vs Brann?
Lillestrom 3 - 2 Brann.
Where is Lillestrom vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Åråsen Stadion.
What competition is Lillestrom vs Brann part of?
Lillestrom vs Brann is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 39% chance of winning, Brann a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lillestrom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Lillestrom and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Lillestrom vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Brann?
Record (7 meetings): Lillestrom 1W | Draws 2 | Brann 4W.
What form are Lillestrom and Brann in?
Lillestrom (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Brann (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lillestrom's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Brann's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. Flip it around — Brann's attack (0.85x) against Lillestrom's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 23/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lillestrom Win
39%
2.57
26%
3.83
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
2.99
1.45
Brann xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
23%
4.26
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
9%
10.95
7%
13.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.3 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.2 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Lillestrom and 1.45 for Brann, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs Brann?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 23 outings, Lillestrom have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 11W 3D 9L record — W-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brann's form line: 9W 2D 12L from 23 games, 1.26 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.57 PPG for Lillestrom against 1.26 for Brann. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Lillestrom have posted 1.45 PPG from 11 outings (5W 1D 5L).
On the road, Brann have gone 3W 2D 6L from 11 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lillestrom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lillestrom are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.74 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann in 74%.
Last 23 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Blended
Brann
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lillestrom and Brann in coming into this match?
Lillestrom have gone 11W 3D 9L in their last 23 games (1.57 PPG), while Brann have gone 9W 2D 12L in their last 23 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lillestrom at home or Brann away?
Lillestrom's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lillestrom at home: 1.45 PPG; Brann away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Lillestrom or Brann been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lillestrom have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Brann in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 25 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Lillestrom have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lillestrom have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Brann — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Lillestrom
2
Draws
4
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Brann?
From 8 meetings on record, Lillestrom have won 2, Brann have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2026, when Lillestrom 3-2 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Lillestrom and Brann?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 64% for Lillestrom, 73% for Brann — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Lillestrom and 73% for Brann. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lillestrom play Brann?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Lillestrom's games and 73% of Brann's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lillestrom vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Lillestrom's matches and 73% of Brann's.
Do Lillestrom and Brann tend to score early?
Lillestrom have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Brann in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lillestrom edge out Brann 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lillestrom beat Brann 3-2 at Åråsen Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lillestrom 1.54 xG and Brann 1.45 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Lillestrom beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lillestrom attack 0.89 / defence 1.11 against Brann attack 0.85 / defence 1.01, drawn from 23/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lillestrom 39% | Draw 26% | Brann 35%, with Lillestrom to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lillestrom 52%, Brann 78%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lillestrom's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Brann's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lillestrom 1.57 PPG, Brann 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lillestrom win broke the near-deadlock. Lillestrom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm. Brann (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.