Lillestrom vs Brann – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Brann (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lillestrom face Brann.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lillestrom and Brann meet at in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lillestrom have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lillestrom at this season: 4W 0D 5L from 9 home games — 1.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Brann (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brann's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Brann arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Lillestrom have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Brann in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 6 meetings, Brann have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Lillestrom's 0, with 2 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2024, ended 1–2 with Brann winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Brann have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Lillestrom half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Brann half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lillestrom 44% and Brann 78% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Lillestrom 50% | Brann 83%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 1.16 xG and Brann 2.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 0.813 / defence 1.352 | Brann attack 1.084 / defence 0.833. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.422. Data: 18 Lillestrom games / 48 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 20% | Draw 21% | Brann 59%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 5.00 | Draw 4.76 | Brann 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Brann (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.16 / 2.08) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Brann are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.25 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lillestrom 67% | Brann 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 20% | Draw 21% | Brann 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 60% | xG Lillestrom 1.16 / Brann 2.08 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 0.813 / def 1.352 | Brann attack 1.084 / def 0.833 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: Brann (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
2.08
Brann xG
60%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lillestrom vs Brann kick off?
Lillestrom vs Brann is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 25 October 2026.
What competition is Lillestrom vs Brann part of?
Lillestrom vs Brann is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 20% chance of winning, Brann a 59% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Lillestrom and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Lillestrom vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Brann?
Record (6 meetings): Lillestrom 0W | Draws 2 | Brann 4W.
What form are Lillestrom and Brann in?
Lillestrom (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Brann (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lillestrom's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Brann's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. Flip it around — Brann's attack (1.08x) against Lillestrom's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 2.08.
These ratings are built from 18/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
20%
4.88
21%
4.76
59%
1.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
0 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
3.25
2.08
Brann xG
4.88
20%
Home win
4.76
21%
Draw
1.71
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
12%
8.04
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
3%
39.28
18%
5.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Lillestrom and 2.08 for Brann, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs Brann?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 18 outings, Lillestrom have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 8W 2D 8L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brann's form line: 8W 2D 8L from 18 games, 1.44 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-D. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Lillestrom against 1.44 for Brann. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Lillestrom have posted 1.33 PPG from 9 outings (4W 0D 5L).
On the road, Brann have gone 3W 2D 4L from 9 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Lillestrom are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 2.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann in 78%.
Last 18 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Blended
Brann
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lillestrom and Brann in coming into this match?
Lillestrom have gone 8W 2D 8L in their last 18 games (1.44 PPG), while Brann have gone 8W 2D 8L in their last 18 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lillestrom at home or Brann away?
Lillestrom's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lillestrom at home: 1.33 PPG; Brann away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Brann have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lillestrom have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Brann — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Lillestrom
2
Draws
4
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Brann?
From 6 meetings on record, Lillestrom have won 0, Brann have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2024, when Brann 2-1 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Lillestrom and Brann?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Lillestrom, 78% for Brann — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Lillestrom and 78% for Brann. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lillestrom play Brann?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Lillestrom's games and 78% of Brann's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lillestrom vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Lillestrom's matches and 78% of Brann's.
Do Lillestrom and Brann tend to score early?
Lillestrom have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Brann in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.