Kristiansund BK 1-1 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Kristiansund BK at 51%, yet in-form Ham-Kam provide a compelling counter-argument — this Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

Ham-Kam travel to Kristiansund Stadion to take on Kristiansund BK in Eliteserien (matchday 7). The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 May 2026 at 16:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Kristiansund BK stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

At home, Kristiansund BK have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Ham-Kam have recorded 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Ham-Kam's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Ham-Kam — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Kristiansund BK have won 1, Ham-Kam 3, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Oct 2025, ended Kristiansund BK 1–3 Ham-Kam — a Ham-Kam win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Kristiansund BK in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 34% of games.

Ham-Kam in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kristiansund BK 58% versus Ham-Kam 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kristiansund BK 54% | Ham-Kam 51%). Note also that Ham-Kam surrender HT leads in 47% of cases while Kristiansund BK recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Kristiansund BK 1.87 xG and Ham-Kam 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kristiansund BK attack 0.946 / defence 1.067 | Ham-Kam attack 0.983 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.708 / away 1.191. Data: built from Kristiansund BK's last 34 games and Ham-Kam's last 35.

Result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 51% | Draw 24% | Ham-Kam 25%. Fair-value odds: Kristiansund BK 1.96 | Draw 4.09 | Ham-Kam 4.07. Kristiansund BK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.87 / 1.25) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Kristiansund BK are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ham-Kam (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kristiansund BK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Kristiansund BK's last 10 home games and Ham-Kam's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kristiansund BK 70% (last 10 home games) | Ham-Kam 50% (last 10 away games).

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