Kristiansund BK 1-3 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kristiansund BK at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Ham-Kam travel to Kristiansund Stadion to take on Kristiansund BK. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 October 2025, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kristiansund BK stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Kristiansund Stadion, Kristiansund BK have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Ham-Kam have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ham-Kam's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Kristiansund BK at 1.20 PPG versus Ham-Kam's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Kristiansund BK have won 1, Ham-Kam 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2025, ended 1–2 with Ham-Kam winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Kristiansund BK in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Ham-Kam in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kristiansund BK 54% versus Ham-Kam 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kristiansund BK 51% | Ham-Kam 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kristiansund BK 1.35 xG and Ham-Kam 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kristiansund BK attack 0.895 / defence 1.001 | Ham-Kam attack 0.809 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.730 / away 1.400. Data: 55 Kristiansund BK games / 55 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 41% | Draw 28% | Ham-Kam 31%. Fair-value odds: Kristiansund BK 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Ham-Kam 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kristiansund BK are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kristiansund BK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Kristiansund BK 50% | Ham-Kam 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Kristiansund Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Oct 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 41% | Draw 28% | Ham-Kam 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Kristiansund BK 1.35 / Ham-Kam 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Kristiansund BK attack 0.895 / def 1.001 | Ham-Kam attack 0.809 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.730 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: Kristiansund BK (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Kristiansund BK xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Ham-Kam xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 26 October 2025 at Kristiansund Stadion.
What was the final score in Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam?
Kristiansund BK 1 - 3 Ham-Kam.
Where is Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Kristiansund Stadion.
What competition is Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam part of?
Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Kristiansund BK a 41% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Kristiansund BK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Kristiansund BK and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Ham-Kam?
Record (5 meetings): Kristiansund BK 1W | Draws 2 | Ham-Kam 2W.
What form are Kristiansund BK and Ham-Kam in?
Kristiansund BK (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Ham-Kam (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Kristiansund BK's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Ham-Kam's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. The same calculation in reverse, Ham-Kam's attack versus Kristiansund BK's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kristiansund BK Win
41%
2.43
28%
3.57
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Kristiansund BK xG
Total xG
2.49
1.13
Ham-Kam xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
13%
7.54
8%
12.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.8 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Kristiansund BK and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Kristiansund BK and 1.13 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, Kristiansund BK have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 16W 17D 22L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Kristiansund BK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ham-Kam's form line: 15W 16D 24L from 55 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-W. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kristiansund BK on 1.18 PPG, Ham-Kam on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Kristiansund BK have posted 1.37 PPG from 27 outings (9W 10D 8L).
On the road, Ham-Kam have gone 6W 9D 12L from 27 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Kristiansund BK are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 1.16 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kristiansund BK
Blended
Ham-Kam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kristiansund BK and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
Kristiansund BK have gone 16W 17D 22L in their last 55 games (1.18 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 15W 16D 24L in their last 55 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kristiansund BK at home or Ham-Kam away?
Kristiansund BK's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kristiansund BK at home: 1.37 PPG; Ham-Kam away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Kristiansund BK's record when hosting Ham-Kam specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Kristiansund BK
4
Draws
3
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Ham-Kam?
From 8 meetings on record, Kristiansund BK have won 1, Ham-Kam have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Kristiansund BK and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Ham-Kam 2-2 Kristiansund BK.
Who has won more matches between Kristiansund BK and Ham-Kam?
Ham-Kam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kristiansund BK 56%, Ham-Kam 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Kristiansund BK) and 44% (Ham-Kam).
On the defensive side: Kristiansund BK have failed to score in 37% of games; Ham-Kam in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kristiansund BK home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kristiansund BK play Ham-Kam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Kristiansund BK's recent matches and 44% of Ham-Kam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kristiansund BK vs Ham-Kam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Kristiansund BK's recent games and 44% of Ham-Kam's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kristiansund BK and Ham-Kam tend to score early?
Kristiansund BK have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Ham-Kam in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ham-Kam cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Kristiansund BK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ham-Kam beat Kristiansund BK 1-3 at Kristiansund Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 1.35 xG and Ham-Kam 1.13 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Ham-Kam outscored their 1.13 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 0.90 / defence 1.00 against Ham-Kam attack 0.81 / defence 0.87, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 41% | Draw 28% | Ham-Kam 31%, with Kristiansund BK to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Ham-Kam win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kristiansund BK 51%, Ham-Kam 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Ham-Kam's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kristiansund BK 1.18 PPG, Ham-Kam 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ham-Kam win broke the near-deadlock. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.