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Prediction vindicated as Fredrikstad edge out Kristiansund BK 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fredrikstad beat Kristiansund BK 0-1 at Kristiansund Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 1.03 xG and Fredrikstad 1.09 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Kristiansund BK fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 0.78 / defence 1.12 against Fredrikstad attack 0.73 / defence 0.83, drawn from 37/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 31% | Draw 35% | Fredrikstad 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Fredrikstad win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kristiansund BK 50%, Fredrikstad 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kristiansund BK's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Fredrikstad's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Fredrikstad arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.13. Form held, and they took the win. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights