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Dominant KFUM Oslo run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Rosenborg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

KFUM Oslo beat Rosenborg 4-1 at KFUM Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting KFUM Oslo 1.71 xG and Rosenborg 1.09 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. KFUM Oslo beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KFUM Oslo attack 1.03 / defence 0.88 against Rosenborg attack 0.89 / defence 1.01, drawn from 45/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it KFUM Oslo 52% | Draw 24% | Rosenborg 24%, with KFUM Oslo to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KFUM Oslo 47%, Rosenborg 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

KFUM Oslo's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Rosenborg's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.29. Form was overturned, with KFUM Oslo winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. KFUM Oslo (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm. Rosenborg (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights