🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates KFUM Oslo at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this KFUM Oslo vs Rosenborg encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

KFUM Arena plays host to KFUM Oslo versus Rosenborg in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Sunday 3 August 2025 at 16:00 UTC.

Form

KFUM Oslo (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for KFUM Oslo, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, KFUM Oslo have posted 3W 2D 5L at KFUM Arena — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at KFUM Arena this season.

Rosenborg have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Rosenborg have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for KFUM Oslo against 1.50 for Rosenborg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — KFUM Oslo lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Jun 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

KFUM Oslo half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).

Rosenborg half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KFUM Oslo 53% versus Rosenborg 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KFUM Oslo 47% | Rosenborg 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects KFUM Oslo 1.71 xG and Rosenborg 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KFUM Oslo attack 1.034 / defence 0.875 | Rosenborg attack 0.891 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.637 / away 1.394. Data: 45 KFUM Oslo games / 47 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: KFUM Oslo 52% | Draw 24% | Rosenborg 24%. Fair-value odds: KFUM Oslo 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Rosenborg 4.17. KFUM Oslo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates KFUM Oslo as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on KFUM Oslo if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: KFUM Oslo 60% | Rosenborg 30%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights