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Dominant Haugesund run riot with a 1-4 hammering of KFUM Oslo.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Haugesund beat KFUM Oslo 1-4 at KFUM Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting KFUM Oslo 2.23 xG and Haugesund 0.83 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. KFUM Oslo fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Haugesund outscored their 0.83 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KFUM Oslo attack 0.99 / defence 0.91 against Haugesund attack 0.65 / defence 1.28, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it KFUM Oslo 68% | Draw 20% | Haugesund 12%, with KFUM Oslo to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a Haugesund win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KFUM Oslo 46%, Haugesund 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

KFUM Oslo's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Haugesund's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, KFUM Oslo arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.71. Form was overturned, with Haugesund winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. KFUM Oslo (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Haugesund (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights