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Poisson model favours KFUM Oslo (68%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as KFUM Oslo face Haugesund.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 27 as KFUM Oslo welcome Haugesund to KFUM Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 2 November 2025 at 16:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, KFUM Oslo stand at 1W 7D 2L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for KFUM Oslo, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at KFUM Arena, KFUM Oslo have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — KFUM Oslo are significantly better at KFUM Arena than their overall form suggests.

Haugesund — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Haugesund's away record: 0W 1D 9L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.

KFUM Oslo are in the better shape of the two on current Eliteserien data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for KFUM Oslo, 0 for Haugesund and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 13 Jul 2025, ended 2–0 with KFUM Oslo winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

KFUM Oslo in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Haugesund in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 46% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KFUM Oslo 57% versus Haugesund 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KFUM Oslo 46% | Haugesund 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects KFUM Oslo 2.23 xG and Haugesund 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KFUM Oslo attack 0.995 / defence 0.905 | Haugesund attack 0.654 / defence 1.281. League average goals — home 1.751 / away 1.404. Haugesund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.281 — this is suppressing KFUM Oslo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 KFUM Oslo games / 56 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: KFUM Oslo 68% | Draw 20% | Haugesund 12%. Fair-value odds: KFUM Oslo 1.47 | Draw 5.00 | Haugesund 8.33. The model has a clear lean to KFUM Oslo (68%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is KFUM Oslo at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: KFUM Oslo 60% | Haugesund 40%.

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