Haugesund 4-2 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haugesund at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haugesund vs Viking fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Viking travel to Haugesund Stadion to take on Haugesund. The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 May 2021, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haugesund stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Haugesund Stadion, Haugesund have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Viking have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Viking's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Haugesund at 1.70 PPG versus Viking's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Haugesund register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Viking in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Haugesund in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Viking in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 57% versus Viking 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Haugesund 60% | Viking 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.54 xG and Viking 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.797 / defence 0.896 | Viking attack 1.043 / defence 1.271. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.227. Haugesund's attack strength of 0.797 is below the league average — the 1.54 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Viking bring a strong defensive rating of 1.271 — this is suppressing Haugesund's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Haugesund games / 35 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 46% | Draw 27% | Viking 28%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Viking 3.57. Haugesund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Haugesund as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haugesund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Haugesund 60% | Viking 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Haugesund Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 30 May 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 46% | Draw 27% | Viking 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Haugesund 1.54 / Viking 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.797 / def 0.896 | Viking attack 1.043 / def 1.271 | league avg home 1.520 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Viking xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Viking kick off?
Haugesund vs Viking kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 30 May 2021 at Haugesund Stadion.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Viking?
Haugesund 4 - 2 Viking.
Where is Haugesund vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Stadion.
What competition is Haugesund vs Viking part of?
Haugesund vs Viking is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 46% chance of winning, Viking a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Haugesund and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Viking?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Haugesund and Viking in?
Haugesund (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Viking (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Haugesund's attack at 0.80x the league average against Viking's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Viking's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
46%
2.19
27%
3.74
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.69
1.15
Viking xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
14%
6.90
6%
16.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.0 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.15 for Viking, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Haugesund come into this having played 30 games, going 11W 6D 13L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-W.
On the other side, Viking sit at 1.47 PPG from 30 outings (12W 8D 10L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Haugesund on 1.30 PPG, Viking on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Haugesund's home form reads 6W 3D 6L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Viking have taken 1.27 points per game from 15 outings (5W 4D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Haugesund are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 1.80 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking in 60%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Current Season
Viking
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Viking in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 11W 6D 13L in their last 30 games (1.30 PPG), while Viking have gone 12W 8D 10L in their last 30 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Viking away?
Haugesund's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.40 PPG; Viking away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Viking have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Apr 2022, when Viking won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting Viking specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Haugesund
1
Draws
6
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Viking?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 3, Viking have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2025, when Haugesund 1-4 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 53%, Viking 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Haugesund and 73% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haugesund have failed to score in 27% of games; Viking in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Viking?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Haugesund's recent matches and 53% of Viking's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Haugesund vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Haugesund's matches and 73% of Viking's.
Do Haugesund and Viking tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Viking in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Haugesund cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Viking.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund beat Viking 4-2 at Haugesund Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.54 xG and Viking 1.15 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Haugesund beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Viking outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.80 / defence 0.90 against Viking attack 1.04 / defence 1.27, drawn from 33/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 46% | Draw 27% | Viking 28%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 60%, Viking 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Viking's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haugesund 1.30 PPG, Viking 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Haugesund win broke the near-deadlock. Haugesund (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm. Viking (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.