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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Haugesund defy the odds to beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Haugesund beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 3-2 at Haugesund Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 0.58 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.97 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Haugesund beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.47 / defence 1.35 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.09 / defence 0.76, drawn from 47/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Haugesund 10% | Draw 20% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 70%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a Haugesund win, an outcome the model had rated at just 10% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 50%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Haugesund's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.

Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Sarpsborg 08 FF arrived the stronger side — 1.28 PPG against 0.72. Form was overturned, with Haugesund winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Haugesund (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.61 average — above their attacking norm. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights