Haugesund 3-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sarpsborg 08 FF (70%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Haugesund face Sarpsborg 08 FF.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Haugesund host Sarpsborg 08 FF at Haugesund Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 August 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haugesund stand at 0W 1D 9L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.10 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund at Haugesund Stadion this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.10 — Haugesund are significantly better at Haugesund Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Sarpsborg 08 FF — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sarpsborg 08 FF away from home this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sarpsborg 08 FF are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Haugesund, 4 for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Jul 2025, ended 1–3 with Sarpsborg 08 FF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Haugesund in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Sarpsborg 08 FF in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 37% versus Sarpsborg 08 FF 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 50% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 0.58 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.465 / defence 1.347 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.087 / defence 0.764. League average goals — home 1.647 / away 1.342. Haugesund's attack strength of 0.465 is below the league average — the 0.58 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence strength of 0.764 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 47 Haugesund games / 46 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 10% | Draw 20% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 70%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 10.00 | Draw 5.00 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.43. The model has a clear lean to Sarpsborg 08 FF (70%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sarpsborg 08 FF as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Haugesund 20% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Haugesund Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Aug 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 10% | Draw 20% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 38% | xG Haugesund 0.58 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.97 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.465 / def 1.347 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.087 / def 0.764 | league avg home 1.647 / away 1.342 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.58
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.97
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
38%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 10 August 2025 at Haugesund Stadion.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Haugesund 3 - 2 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Stadion.
What competition is Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 10% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 70% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Record (9 meetings): Haugesund 2W | Draws 3 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 4W.
What form are Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Haugesund (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.10 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Haugesund's attack rating (0.47) and Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 0.58 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 1.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (14.2%), 1-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
10%
10.10
20%
4.98
70%
1.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
15.1%
Away win
0 – 3
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.58
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.55
1.97
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
10.10
10%
Home win
4.98
20%
Draw
1.43
70%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
14%
7.13
56%
1.79
Win to Nil
1%
72.07
39%
2.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 15.3 | 15.1 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.9 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 0.58 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.97 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, Haugesund have picked up 0.72 PPG on a 8W 9D 29L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's form line: 15W 14D 17L from 46 games, 1.28 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-L. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sarpsborg 08 FF are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Haugesund.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Haugesund have posted 1.04 PPG from 23 outings (7W 3D 13L).
On the road, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 9W 8D 6L from 23 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sarpsborg 08 FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Haugesund are averaging 0.72 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.50 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF in 70%.
Last 46 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 8W 9D 29L in their last 46 games (0.72 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 15W 14D 17L in their last 46 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.04 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 1.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 August 2025, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Oct 2022, when Sarpsborg 08 FF won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting Sarpsborg 08 FF specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Haugesund
3
Draws
4
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 3, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2025, when Haugesund 3-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Haugesund see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 22%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Haugesund) and 65% (Sarpsborg 08 FF).
On the defensive side: Haugesund keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Haugesund have failed to score in 56% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 22% of Haugesund's recent matches and 70% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Haugesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Haugesund's recent games and 65% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Haugesund and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Haugesund defy the odds to beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haugesund beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 3-2 at Haugesund Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 0.58 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.97 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Haugesund beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.47 / defence 1.35 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.09 / defence 0.76, drawn from 47/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 10% | Draw 20% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 70%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a Haugesund win, an outcome the model had rated at just 10% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 50%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sarpsborg 08 FF arrived the stronger side — 1.28 PPG against 0.72. Form was overturned, with Haugesund winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Haugesund (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.61 average — above their attacking norm. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.