🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Sarpsborg 08 FF (70%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Haugesund face Sarpsborg 08 FF.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Haugesund host Sarpsborg 08 FF at Haugesund Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 August 2025 at 16:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Haugesund stand at 0W 1D 9L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.10 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Haugesund at Haugesund Stadion this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.10 — Haugesund are significantly better at Haugesund Stadion than their overall form suggests.

Sarpsborg 08 FF — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Sarpsborg 08 FF away from home this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sarpsborg 08 FF are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Haugesund, 4 for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Jul 2025, ended 1–3 with Sarpsborg 08 FF winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Haugesund in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.

Sarpsborg 08 FF in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 37% versus Sarpsborg 08 FF 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 50% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 0.58 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.465 / defence 1.347 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.087 / defence 0.764. League average goals — home 1.647 / away 1.342. Haugesund's attack strength of 0.465 is below the league average — the 0.58 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence strength of 0.764 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 47 Haugesund games / 46 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Haugesund 10% | Draw 20% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 70%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 10.00 | Draw 5.00 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.43. The model has a clear lean to Sarpsborg 08 FF (70%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Sarpsborg 08 FF as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Haugesund 20% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights