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Prediction vindicated as Sandefjord edge out Haugesund 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sandefjord beat Haugesund 2-3 at Haugesund Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.14 xG and Sandefjord 1.72 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Haugesund beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sandefjord outscored their 1.72 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.62 / defence 1.49 against Sandefjord attack 0.87 / defence 1.08, drawn from 52/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Haugesund 25% | Draw 24% | Sandefjord 51%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 53%, Sandefjord 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Haugesund's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.

Sandefjord's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Sandefjord arrived the stronger side — 1.22 PPG against 0.73. Form held, and they took the win. Haugesund (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.72 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sandefjord (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights