Haugesund 2-3 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sandefjord (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Haugesund face Sandefjord.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sandefjord make the trip to Haugesund Stadion to face Haugesund in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Monday 29 September 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Haugesund have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 games at Haugesund Stadion this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sandefjord (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandefjord's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Sandefjord are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Haugesund 2W, Sandefjord 4W, 3D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Jun 2025, ended 0–4 with Sandefjord winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Haugesund goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 24% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 49% of games.
Sandefjord goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 39% versus Sandefjord 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 53% | Sandefjord 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.14 xG and Sandefjord 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.620 / defence 1.492 | Sandefjord attack 0.873 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.706 / away 1.324. Haugesund's attack strength of 0.620 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 52 Haugesund games / 51 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 25% | Draw 24% | Sandefjord 51%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 4.00 | Draw 4.17 | Sandefjord 1.96. Sandefjord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sandefjord at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sandefjord if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Haugesund 30% | Sandefjord 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Haugesund Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 29 Sep 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 25% | Draw 24% | Sandefjord 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Haugesund 1.14 / Sandefjord 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.620 / def 1.492 | Sandefjord attack 0.873 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.706 / away 1.324 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Sandefjord xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Sandefjord kick off?
Haugesund vs Sandefjord kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 29 September 2025 at Haugesund Stadion.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Sandefjord?
Haugesund 2 - 3 Sandefjord.
Where is Haugesund vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Stadion.
What competition is Haugesund vs Sandefjord part of?
Haugesund vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 25% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 51% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Haugesund and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Sandefjord?
Record (9 meetings): Haugesund 2W | Draws 3 | Sandefjord 4W.
What form are Haugesund and Sandefjord in?
Haugesund (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Sandefjord (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Haugesund's attack at 0.62x the league average against Sandefjord's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sandefjord's attack (0.87x) against Haugesund's defence (1.49x) — and the away total comes out at 1.72.
These ratings are built from 52/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
25%
4.00
24%
4.15
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.87
1.72
Sandefjord xG
4.00
25%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
18%
5.61
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
4%
22.40
16%
6.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 9.8 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.72 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Sandefjord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Haugesund come into this having played 51 games, going 9W 10D 32L for 0.73 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sandefjord sit at 1.22 PPG from 51 outings (18W 8D 25L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Sandefjord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sandefjord carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of Haugesund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Haugesund's home form reads 8W 3D 14L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.08 PPG return.
Away from home, Sandefjord have taken 0.60 points per game from 25 outings (3W 6D 16L). That's a step down from their 1.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sandefjord's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Haugesund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Haugesund are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.53 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord in 61%.
Last 51 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
Sandefjord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 9W 10D 32L in their last 51 games (0.73 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 18W 8D 25L in their last 51 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Sandefjord away?
Haugesund's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.08 PPG; Sandefjord away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 29 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sandefjord have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sandefjord won 4-0 on 22 Jun 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Haugesund have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Haugesund
3
Draws
5
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Sandefjord?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 2, Sandefjord have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2025, when Haugesund 2-3 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Sandefjord?
Sandefjord have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Haugesund see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Sandefjord see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haugesund 24%, Sandefjord 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Haugesund) and 64% (Sandefjord).
On the defensive side: Haugesund keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Haugesund have failed to score in 56% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Sandefjord?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 24% of Haugesund's recent matches and 68% of Sandefjord's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Haugesund vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Haugesund's recent games and 64% of Sandefjord's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Sandefjord edge out Haugesund 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandefjord beat Haugesund 2-3 at Haugesund Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.14 xG and Sandefjord 1.72 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Haugesund beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sandefjord outscored their 1.72 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.62 / defence 1.49 against Sandefjord attack 0.87 / defence 1.08, drawn from 52/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 25% | Draw 24% | Sandefjord 51%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 53%, Sandefjord 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Sandefjord's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sandefjord arrived the stronger side — 1.22 PPG against 0.73. Form held, and they took the win. Haugesund (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.72 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sandefjord (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.