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Eliteserien · Regular Season - 13

Kick-off

Sun 13 Jul 2025

16:00

Venue

Haugesund Stadion

Competition

Eliteserien

Norway

Status

FT
📰

KFUM Oslo cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Haugesund.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

KFUM Oslo beat Haugesund 0-2 at Haugesund Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 0.80 xG and KFUM Oslo 1.58 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Haugesund fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.54 / defence 1.29 against KFUM Oslo attack 0.94 / defence 1.00, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Haugesund 19% | Draw 26% | KFUM Oslo 56%, with KFUM Oslo to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 50%, KFUM Oslo 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Haugesund's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.

KFUM Oslo's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Haugesund 0.79 PPG, KFUM Oslo 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the KFUM Oslo win broke the near-deadlock. KFUM Oslo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights

Model Over/Under 2.5 landed as modelled — 43% Over 2.5 probability, 2 goals scored.
Model BTTS matched the model — 44% projected, both teams did not both score.
Trading Trading data backed up — the sides average 49% Over 2.5 historically, and this game stayed under.

⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.