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Poisson rates KFUM Oslo at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Haugesund vs KFUM Oslo encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees KFUM Oslo travel to Haugesund Stadion to take on Haugesund. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 July 2025, 16:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Haugesund stand at 0W 2D 8L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Haugesund have posted 3W 2D 5L at Haugesund Stadion — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.20 — Haugesund are significantly better at Haugesund Stadion than their overall form suggests.

Across all Eliteserien games this season, KFUM Oslo have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for KFUM Oslo, so this record blends games from this season and last.

KFUM Oslo's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. KFUM Oslo are 0.70 PPG ahead (0.90 vs 0.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Haugesund, 1 for KFUM Oslo and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Haugesund trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 24% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 45% of games.

KFUM Oslo trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 40% versus KFUM Oslo 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 50% | KFUM Oslo 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 0.80 xG and KFUM Oslo 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.536 / defence 1.289 | KFUM Oslo attack 0.945 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.504 / away 1.301. Haugesund's attack strength of 0.536 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 43 Haugesund games / 42 KFUM Oslo games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Haugesund 19% | Draw 26% | KFUM Oslo 56%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 5.26 | Draw 3.85 | KFUM Oslo 1.79. The model has a clear lean to KFUM Oslo (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates KFUM Oslo as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Haugesund 20% | KFUM Oslo 50% BTTS from recent games.

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