Haugesund 0-3 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ham-Kam at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Haugesund vs Ham-Kam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Haugesund host Ham-Kam at Haugesund Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 July 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haugesund stand at 0W 1D 9L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund at Haugesund Stadion this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.10 — Haugesund are significantly better at Haugesund Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Ham-Kam have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ham-Kam's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Ham-Kam are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Haugesund have won 2, Ham-Kam 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2024, ended 0–1 with Ham-Kam winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Haugesund trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Ham-Kam trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haugesund 39% versus Ham-Kam 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 50% | Ham-Kam 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 0.79 xG and Ham-Kam 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.474 / defence 1.316 | Ham-Kam attack 0.793 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.273. Haugesund's attack strength of 0.474 is below the league average — the 0.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 45 Haugesund games / 44 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 22% | Draw 28% | Ham-Kam 49%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 4.55 | Draw 3.57 | Ham-Kam 2.04. Ham-Kam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ham-Kam are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Haugesund 20% | Ham-Kam 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Haugesund Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Jul 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 22% | Draw 28% | Ham-Kam 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 40% | xG Haugesund 0.79 / Ham-Kam 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.474 / def 1.316 | Ham-Kam attack 0.793 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Ham-Kam xG
40%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Haugesund vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 26 July 2025 at Haugesund Stadion.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Ham-Kam?
Haugesund 0 - 3 Ham-Kam.
Where is Haugesund vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Stadion.
What competition is Haugesund vs Ham-Kam part of?
Haugesund vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 22% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 49% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Haugesund and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Ham-Kam?
Record (6 meetings): Haugesund 2W | Draws 2 | Ham-Kam 2W.
What form are Haugesund and Ham-Kam in?
Haugesund (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Ham-Kam (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Haugesund's attacking strength (0.47x league average) is weighed against Ham-Kam's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.79. The same calculation in reverse, Ham-Kam's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.3%), 0-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
22%
4.49
28%
3.51
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Haugesund xG
Total xG
2.12
1.33
Ham-Kam xG
4.49
22%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
45%
2.21
Win to Nil
6%
16.96
22%
4.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 15.9 | 10.6 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.6 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Haugesund and 1.33 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Ham-Kam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Haugesund come into this having played 44 games, going 8W 9D 27L for 0.75 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ham-Kam sit at 1.07 PPG from 44 outings (11W 14D 19L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Haugesund on 0.75 PPG, Ham-Kam on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Haugesund's home form reads 7W 3D 12L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.09 PPG return.
Away from home, Ham-Kam have taken 1.00 points per game from 22 outings (5W 7D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Haugesund are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 1.09 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Blended
Ham-Kam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 8W 9D 27L in their last 44 games (0.75 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 11W 14D 19L in their last 44 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Ham-Kam away?
Haugesund's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.09 PPG; Ham-Kam away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 23 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Ham-Kam go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Nov 2025, when Ham-Kam won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting Ham-Kam specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Haugesund
2
Draws
4
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Ham-Kam?
From 8 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 2, Ham-Kam have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2025, when Ham-Kam 5-0 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Ham-Kam?
Ham-Kam have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Haugesund see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Haugesund 23% BTTS, Ham-Kam 46%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Haugesund) and 46% (Ham-Kam).
On the defensive side: Haugesund keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Haugesund have failed to score in 54% of games; Ham-Kam in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Ham-Kam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 23% of Haugesund's recent matches and 46% of Ham-Kam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Haugesund vs Ham-Kam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Haugesund's recent games and 46% of Ham-Kam's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Haugesund and Ham-Kam tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Ham-Kam in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ham-Kam run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Haugesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ham-Kam beat Haugesund 0-3 at Haugesund Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 0.79 xG and Ham-Kam 1.33 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Ham-Kam outscored their 1.33 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.47 / defence 1.32 against Ham-Kam attack 0.79 / defence 1.03, drawn from 45/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 22% | Draw 28% | Ham-Kam 49%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 50%, Ham-Kam 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ham-Kam's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haugesund 0.75 PPG, Ham-Kam 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ham-Kam win broke the near-deadlock. Haugesund (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.