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Stalemate at Haugesund's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Haugesund Stadion, Regular Season - 4, as Haugesund and Fredrikstad drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.20 xG and Fredrikstad 1.54 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Haugesund fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Fredrikstad landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.78 / defence 1.34 against Fredrikstad attack 0.86 / defence 0.94, drawn from 33/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Haugesund 30% | Draw 25% | Fredrikstad 45%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 43%, Fredrikstad 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Haugesund's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Fredrikstad's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Fredrikstad arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights