Haugesund 0-1 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Haugesund face Bodo/Glimt.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Bodo/Glimt travel to Haugesund Sparebank Arena to take on Haugesund. The game is scheduled for Sunday 2 June 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Haugesund have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Haugesund have gone 5W 0D 5L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Bodo/Glimt — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bodo/Glimt's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bodo/Glimt are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
Bodo/Glimt have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 6 encounters against Haugesund's 0 victories.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2023, ended 1–3 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bodo/Glimt have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Haugesund trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Bodo/Glimt trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Haugesund 57% and Bodo/Glimt 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haugesund 55% | Bodo/Glimt 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haugesund 1.01 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haugesund attack 0.833 / defence 0.950 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.394 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.523. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack strength of 1.394 — the away xG of 2.02 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 40 Haugesund games / 41 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haugesund 18% | Draw 21% | Bodo/Glimt 61%. Fair-value odds: Haugesund 5.56 | Draw 4.76 | Bodo/Glimt 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Haugesund 50% | Bodo/Glimt 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Haugesund Sparebank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Jun 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haugesund 18% | Draw 21% | Bodo/Glimt 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 55% | xG Haugesund 1.01 / Bodo/Glimt 2.02 • Poisson strength factors: Haugesund attack 0.833 / def 0.950 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.394 / def 0.904 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.523 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Haugesund xG
Expected Goals
2.02
Bodo/Glimt xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 2 June 2024 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What was the final score in Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Haugesund 0 - 1 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Haugesund Sparebank Arena.
What competition is Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Haugesund a 18% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 61% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt?
Record (6 meetings): Haugesund 0W | Draws 2 | Bodo/Glimt 4W.
What form are Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt in?
Haugesund (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Haugesund's attack at 0.83x the league average against Bodo/Glimt's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bodo/Glimt's attack versus Haugesund's defence, projects 2.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (10.0%), 0-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
18%
5.48
21%
4.76
61%
1.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Haugesund xG
Total xG
3.03
2.02
Bodo/Glimt xG
5.48
18%
Home win
4.76
21%
Draw
1.65
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
13%
7.52
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
2%
41.25
22%
4.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Haugesund and 2.02 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Haugesund come into this having played 60 games, going 19W 14D 27L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-W.
On the other side, Bodo/Glimt sit at 2.17 PPG from 60 outings (40W 10D 10L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.99 PPG clear of Haugesund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Haugesund's home form reads 13W 6D 11L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Bodo/Glimt have taken 2.07 points per game from 30 outings (20W 2D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Haugesund are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.73 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt in 65%.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haugesund
Current Season
Bodo/Glimt
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Haugesund have gone 19W 14D 27L in their last 60 games (1.18 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 40W 10D 10L in their last 60 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haugesund at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haugesund at home: 1.50 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.07 PPG.
Have Haugesund or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haugesund have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 5 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bodo/Glimt have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Jun 2025, when Bodo/Glimt won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haugesund's record when hosting Bodo/Glimt specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Haugesund
2
Draws
8
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, Haugesund have won 0, Bodo/Glimt have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 5 October 2025, when Bodo/Glimt 2-0 Haugesund.
Who has won more matches between Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Haugesund at 67%, Bodo/Glimt at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Haugesund and 73% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haugesund home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haugesund play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Haugesund's games and 67% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haugesund vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Haugesund's matches and 73% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Haugesund and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Haugesund have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bodo/Glimt edge out Haugesund 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Haugesund 0-1 at Haugesund Sparebank Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haugesund 1.01 xG and Bodo/Glimt 2.02 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Haugesund fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Bodo/Glimt landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haugesund attack 0.83 / defence 0.95 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.39 / defence 0.90, drawn from 40/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haugesund 18% | Draw 21% | Bodo/Glimt 61%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haugesund 55%, Bodo/Glimt 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haugesund's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.18. Form held, and they took the win. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.