KFUM Oslo 3-3 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this KFUM Oslo vs Sandefjord fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
KFUM Oslo host Sandefjord at KFUM Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 2 June 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sandefjord have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Sandefjord have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KFUM Oslo 0.97 xG and Sandefjord 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KFUM Oslo attack 0.634 / defence 1.149 | Sandefjord attack 0.810 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.523. KFUM Oslo's attack strength of 0.634 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 10 KFUM Oslo games / 40 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KFUM Oslo 26% | Draw 27% | Sandefjord 47%. Fair-value odds: KFUM Oslo 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | Sandefjord 2.13. Sandefjord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sandefjord as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sandefjord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KFUM Oslo vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: KFUM Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Jun 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KFUM Oslo 26% | Draw 27% | Sandefjord 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG KFUM Oslo 0.97 / Sandefjord 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: KFUM Oslo attack 0.634 / def 1.149 | Sandefjord attack 0.810 / def 1.144 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.523 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
KFUM Oslo xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Sandefjord xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KFUM Oslo vs Sandefjord kick off?
KFUM Oslo vs Sandefjord kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 2 June 2024 at KFUM Arena.
What was the final score in KFUM Oslo vs Sandefjord?
KFUM Oslo 3 - 3 Sandefjord.
Where is KFUM Oslo vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at KFUM Arena.
What competition is KFUM Oslo vs Sandefjord part of?
KFUM Oslo vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win KFUM Oslo vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives KFUM Oslo a 26% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in KFUM Oslo vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both KFUM Oslo and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will KFUM Oslo vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between KFUM Oslo and Sandefjord?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are KFUM Oslo and Sandefjord in?
Sandefjord (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Sandefjord away split: 0.60 PPG from 10 | GF 2.00 / GA 2.90 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
KFUM Oslo's attacking strength (0.63x league average) is weighed against Sandefjord's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. The same calculation in reverse, Sandefjord's attack versus KFUM Oslo's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
26%
3.87
27%
3.72
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
9.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
KFUM Oslo xG
Total xG
2.39
1.42
Sandefjord xG
3.87
26%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
6%
15.96
18%
5.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 13.0 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KFUM Oslo vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are KFUM Oslo and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for KFUM Oslo and 1.42 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for KFUM Oslo vs Sandefjord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KFUM Oslo
Pre-Season
Sandefjord
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between KFUM Oslo and Sandefjord runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 7 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sandefjord go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
KFUM Oslo's record when hosting Sandefjord specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
KFUM Oslo
1
Draws
3
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KFUM Oslo and Sandefjord?
From 5 meetings on record, KFUM Oslo have won 1, Sandefjord have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did KFUM Oslo and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2026, when KFUM Oslo 1-2 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between KFUM Oslo and Sandefjord?
Sandefjord have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KFUM Oslo home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
KFUM Oslo and Sandefjord share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KFUM Oslo and Sandefjord finished level at 3-3 at KFUM Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KFUM Oslo 0.97 xG and Sandefjord 1.42 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. KFUM Oslo beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sandefjord outscored their 1.42 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KFUM Oslo attack 0.63 / defence 1.15 against Sandefjord attack 0.81 / defence 1.14, drawn from 10/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KFUM Oslo 26% | Draw 27% | Sandefjord 47%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.