Ham-Kam 1-0 Valerenga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ham-Kam at 55% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ham-Kam face Valerenga.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Ham-Kam welcome Valerenga to Briskeby Arena in Eliteserien (matchday 8). Kick-off is Friday 8 May 2026 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Ham-Kam — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Ham-Kam have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Valerenga stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Valerenga's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 0D 8L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ham-Kam at 1.60 PPG versus Valerenga's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Ham-Kam's last 10 home games and Valerenga's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Ham-Kam have won 1, Valerenga 2, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Oct 2025, ended Ham-Kam 2–1 Valerenga — a Ham-Kam win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Ham-Kam trading profile (last 29 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Valerenga trading profile (last 29 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ham-Kam 55% and Valerenga 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 62% | Valerenga 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 2.16 xG and Valerenga 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 1.146 / defence 1.120 | Valerenga attack 1.040 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.653 / away 1.177. Data: built from Ham-Kam's last 36 games and Valerenga's last 36.
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 55% | Draw 21% | Valerenga 24%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 1.81 | Draw 4.69 | Valerenga 4.25. The model has a clear lean to Ham-Kam (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (2.16 / 1.37) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ham-Kam as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.54 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Ham-Kam's last 10 home games and Valerenga's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ham-Kam 70% (last 10 home games) | Valerenga 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Valerenga | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 8 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Friday 8 May 2026 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 55% | Draw 21% | Valerenga 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% (Under 31%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG Ham-Kam 2.16 / Valerenga 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 1.146 / def 1.120 | Valerenga attack 1.040 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.653 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.16
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Valerenga xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ham-Kam vs Valerenga FAQs
What time does Ham-Kam vs Valerenga kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Valerenga kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Friday 8 May 2026 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Valerenga?
Ham-Kam 1 - 0 Valerenga.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Valerenga being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Valerenga part of?
Ham-Kam vs Valerenga is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 8) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Valerenga?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 55% chance of winning, Valerenga a 24% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Valerenga?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Ham-Kam and Valerenga will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Ham-Kam vs Valerenga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ham-Kam's attack at 1.15x the league average against Valerenga's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 2.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Valerenga's attack versus Ham-Kam's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ham-Kam's last 36 games and Valerenga's last 36 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
55%
1.81
21%
4.69
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 0
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.16
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
3.54
1.37
Valerenga xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.69
21%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.50
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
11%
8.70
Win to Nil
14%
7.15
3%
36.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ham-Kam vs Valerenga Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Valerenga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Valerenga expected to score?
The model projects 2.16 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.37 for Valerenga, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Valerenga?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ham-Kam come into this having played 29 games, going 9W 7D 13L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Valerenga sit at 1.38 PPG from 29 outings (12W 4D 13L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ham-Kam on 1.17 PPG, Valerenga on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Ham-Kam's home form reads 6W 3D 5L across their last 14 home games, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Valerenga have taken 0.86 points per game from their last 14 away games (4W 0D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valerenga's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ham-Kam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Valerenga are on 1.59 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga in 66%.
Last 29 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Current Season
Valerenga
Current Season
Ham-Kam (Home) vs Valerenga (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ham-Kam
Current Season
Valerenga
Current Season
❓ Ham-Kam vs Valerenga Form FAQs
What form are Ham-Kam and Valerenga in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 9W 7D 13L in their last 29 games (1.17 PPG), while Valerenga have gone 12W 4D 13L in their last 29 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or Valerenga away?
Ham-Kam's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.50 PPG; Valerenga away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from May 2022. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was on 31 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Ham-Kam have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 May 2023, when Valerenga won Valerenga 3-0 Ham-Kam.
Ham-Kam's record when hosting Valerenga specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Ham-Kam
3
Draws
2
Valerenga
Recent Meetings
❓ Ham-Kam vs Valerenga H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Valerenga?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Ham-Kam have won 3, Valerenga have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Valerenga last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 July 2026: Valerenga 0-3 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Valerenga?
Ham-Kam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ham-Kam 71%, Valerenga 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Ham-Kam and 57% for Valerenga. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Valerenga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ham-Kam vs Valerenga Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ham-Kam and Valerenga matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Ham-Kam's games and 57% of Valerenga's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Ham-Kam and Valerenga matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Ham-Kam's matches and 57% of Valerenga's.
Do Ham-Kam and Valerenga matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Ham-Kam's recent matches and 64% of Valerenga's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ham-Kam edge out Valerenga 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ham-Kam beat Valerenga 1-0 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 2.16 xG and Valerenga 1.37 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ham-Kam fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Valerenga landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 1.15 / defence 1.12 against Valerenga attack 1.04 / defence 1.14, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 55% | Draw 21% | Valerenga 24%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 62%, Valerenga 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ham-Kam's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Valerenga's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ham-Kam 1.17 PPG, Valerenga 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ham-Kam win broke the near-deadlock. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Valerenga (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.