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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Tromso cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Ham-Kam.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Tromso beat Ham-Kam 1-3 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.57 xG and Tromso 1.74 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Tromso outscored their 1.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 1.00 / defence 1.02 against Tromso attack 1.16 / defence 1.04, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 35% | Draw 23% | Tromso 42%, with Tromso to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 48%, Tromso 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ham-Kam's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Tromso's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Tromso arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Tromso (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights