Ham-Kam 1-3 Tromso – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Tromso at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ham-Kam vs Tromso encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Tromso make the trip to Briskeby Arena to face Ham-Kam in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 June 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ham-Kam have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Ham-Kam's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Briskeby Arena this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Tromso (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Tromso's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Ham-Kam, 0.90 for Tromso — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Ham-Kam have seen both teams score in just 20% of their games, Tromso in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Head-to-Head
Tromso hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 6 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2024, ended 3–3 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Tromso have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Ham-Kam — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Tromso — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 42% versus Tromso 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 48% | Tromso 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.57 xG and Tromso 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 1.002 / defence 1.018 | Tromso attack 1.161 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.472. Data: 39 Ham-Kam games / 39 Tromso games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 35% | Draw 23% | Tromso 42%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 2.86 | Draw 4.35 | Tromso 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.6 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 64% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows. Form shows strong BTTS No rates for both sides but Poisson BTTS probability is 65% — current-season attack strengths are higher than recent results suggest.
Poisson rates Tromso as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tromso if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.31 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Ham-Kam 20% | Tromso 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
Multiple data sources are pointing in different directions on the likely outcome — reduce stake size to reflect the analytical uncertainty. The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Tromso | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Jun 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 35% | Draw 23% | Tromso 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Ham-Kam 1.57 / Tromso 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 1.002 / def 1.018 | Tromso attack 1.161 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.508 / away 1.472 • Poisson stance: Tromso (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Tromso xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Tromso kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Tromso kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 22 June 2025 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Tromso?
Ham-Kam 1 - 3 Tromso.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Tromso being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Tromso part of?
Ham-Kam vs Tromso is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Tromso?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 35% chance of winning, Tromso a 42% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Tromso the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Tromso?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Ham-Kam and Tromso will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Tromso have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Tromso?
Record (6 meetings): Ham-Kam 0W | Draws 2 | Tromso 4W.
What form are Ham-Kam and Tromso in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Tromso (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ham-Kam's attack rating (1.00) and Tromso's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Tromso's attack (1.16x) against Ham-Kam's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.74.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Tromso Win
35%
2.85
23%
4.37
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
3.31
1.74
Tromso xG
2.85
35%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.89
Clean Sheet
18%
5.69
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
6%
16.22
9%
11.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.3 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.0 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.8 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Tromso?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Tromso expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.74 for Tromso, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Tromso?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, Ham-Kam have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 18W 13D 29L record — W-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Tromso's form line: 28W 10D 22L from 60 games, 1.57 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Tromso are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ham-Kam.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ham-Kam have posted 1.23 PPG from 30 outings (10W 7D 13L).
On the road, Tromso have gone 14W 4D 12L from 30 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Tromso are on 1.37 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Current Season
Tromso
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ham-Kam and Tromso in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 18W 13D 29L in their last 60 games (1.12 PPG), while Tromso have gone 28W 10D 22L in their last 60 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or Tromso away?
Tromso's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.23 PPG; Tromso away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Ham-Kam or Tromso been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ham-Kam have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Tromso in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Tromso have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tromso won 1-4 on 18 Jul 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ham-Kam have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Tromso — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Ham-Kam
2
Draws
7
Tromso
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Tromso?
From 9 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 0, Tromso have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Tromso last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Ham-Kam 1-4 Tromso.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Tromso?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Tromso see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ham-Kam 30%, Tromso 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Ham-Kam) and 50% (Tromso).
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Tromso in 33%; Ham-Kam have failed to score in 43% of games; Tromso in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Tromso away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ham-Kam play Tromso?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Ham-Kam's recent matches and 43% of Tromso's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ham-Kam vs Tromso usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Ham-Kam's recent games and 50% of Tromso's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ham-Kam and Tromso tend to score early?
Ham-Kam have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Tromso in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Tromso cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Ham-Kam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tromso beat Ham-Kam 1-3 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.57 xG and Tromso 1.74 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Tromso outscored their 1.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 1.00 / defence 1.02 against Tromso attack 1.16 / defence 1.04, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 35% | Draw 23% | Tromso 42%, with Tromso to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 48%, Tromso 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ham-Kam's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Tromso's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Tromso arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Tromso (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.