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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sarpsborg 08 FF cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Ham-Kam.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sarpsborg 08 FF beat Ham-Kam 1-3 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.45 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.33 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF outscored their 1.33 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.83 / defence 1.04 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.95 / defence 1.06, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 40% | Draw 26% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 34%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Sarpsborg 08 FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 43%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ham-Kam's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ham-Kam 1.10 PPG, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sarpsborg 08 FF win broke the near-deadlock. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights