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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Ham-Kam cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sandefjord.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ham-Kam beat Sandefjord 3-1 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.51 xG and Sandefjord 1.47 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Ham-Kam beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.90 / defence 1.01 against Sandefjord attack 1.03 / defence 0.95, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 38% | Draw 26% | Sandefjord 36%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 46%, Sandefjord 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ham-Kam's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Sandefjord's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ham-Kam 1.14 PPG, Sandefjord 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ham-Kam win broke the near-deadlock. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm. Sandefjord (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights