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Poisson rates Ham-Kam at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ham-Kam vs Sandefjord encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 27 as Ham-Kam welcome Sandefjord to Briskeby Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 2 November 2025 at 16:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Ham-Kam — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Ham-Kam have posted 4W 2D 4L at Briskeby Arena — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sandefjord have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sandefjord, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Sandefjord's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Ham-Kam) versus 1.20 (Sandefjord). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

Head to Head

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Ham-Kam: 5 wins from 7 previous clashes against 1 for Sandefjord, with 1 draws across those contests.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2025, ended 0–2 with Sandefjord winning.

The historical record gives Ham-Kam a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

In-Play Data

Ham-Kam trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Sandefjord trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 48% versus Sandefjord 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 46% | Sandefjord 66%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.51 xG and Sandefjord 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.903 / defence 1.015 | Sandefjord attack 1.031 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.751 / away 1.404. Data: 56 Ham-Kam games / 56 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 38% | Draw 26% | Sandefjord 36%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Sandefjord 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Ham-Kam at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ham-Kam 80% | Sandefjord 80% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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