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Dominant Ham-Kam run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Rosenborg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ham-Kam beat Rosenborg 4-0 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.35 xG and Rosenborg 1.59 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Ham-Kam beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rosenborg landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.79 / defence 1.18 against Rosenborg attack 0.99 / defence 1.04, drawn from 52/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 32% | Draw 25% | Rosenborg 43%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Ham-Kam win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 45%, Rosenborg 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ham-Kam's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.

Rosenborg's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.04. Form was overturned, with Ham-Kam winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights